000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230836 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Newton is centered near 18.1N 110.4W at 23/0900 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 15 ft. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 17N to 19N between 108W and 110W. On the forecast track, a west-northwest motion is expected to continue for the next couple days along with some slow weakening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N89W to 14N94W to 16N100W, then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Newton near 14N115W to 12N124W to 13N131W to 10N138W. The ITCZ begins near 10N138W and continues beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate convection is from 13N to 16N between 94W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 92W and 105W, and from 11N to 15N between 110W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Newton near 17.9N 109.8W 996 mb at 8 PM PDT moving W at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Please see above for further details on T.S. Newton. The remnant low of Madeline is centered near 22N119W with fresh to locally strong NE winds within 150 nm NW semicircle of the low center where seas remain 8 to 9 ft. Outside of T.S. Newton and the remnants of Madeline, moderate northerly winds are noted west of Baja California Norte, and light to moderate SE to E winds are occurring E of the remnants of Madeline, across the offshore waters of Baja Sur. Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds prevail across the nearshore waters of Cabo Corrientes, to the east of Newton. A pulse of fresh northerly winds is occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell offshore of Baja California, and 5-6 ft in SW swell over the open waters off Mexico, and 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Newton will move to 18.2N 110.9W Fri morning, 18.8N 112.5W Fri evening, 19.4N 114.3W Sat morning, 19.8N 116.0W Sat evening, weaken to a remnant low near 19.7N 117.4W Sun morning, and 19.3N 118.9W Sun evening. Newton will dissipate late Mon. High pressure well offshore of California will maintain a ridge across the regional waters through the weekend. As the remnant low of Madeline shifts west of 117W tonight, northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters will gradually diminish into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, while light and variable winds are north of the trough from the waters of El Salvador to Tehuantepec. Seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell across the offshore waters. For the forecast, little chance in the current pattern is expected. Moderate monsoonal winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters through tonight before weakening modestly into the weekend, then freshening S of 07N Sun and Mon. Cross equatorial SW swell is expected to maintain seas of 5-7 ft across the regional waters through the weekend, then increase Mon night and Tue as new swell arrives. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features above for details on T.S. Newton forecast to move off the Baja California Sur offshore waters and into the high seas waters by Sat night. Outside of the remnants of Madeline, a weak pressure gradient prevails north of the monsoon trough, with mainly gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-8 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. Pulses of cross-equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W, and maintain seas to 8 ft along the equator through Mon. The remnants of Madeline will move westward and gradually weaken through Fri. Fresh winds will persist across the NW semicircle of the low, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in NE swell. Winds south of the monsoon trough will freshen E of 120W by early next week. $$ Ramos