000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Sep 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Newton is centered near 17.9N 108.4W at 22/1500 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Maximum seas have built to 14 ft within the area of strongest winds. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm E and 75 nm W semicircles. Newton is forecast to maintain its strength for a day, followed by gradually weakening through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N90W to 16N102W, then resumes near 15N115W to a 1010 mb low near 13N118W to 1009 mb low near 13N134W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 88W and 101W and from 10N to 17N between 116W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on T.S. Newton. Elsewhere, the remnant low of Madeline is centered near 21N117W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh NE winds within 240 nm across the NW quadrant, where seas are 8 to 9 ft. Outside of the remnants of Madeline and T.S. Newton, moderate to fresh winds northerly are noted west of Baja California Norte, and light to moderate SE to E winds are occurring E of the remnants of Madeline, across the offshore waters of Baja Sur. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail over the northern Gulf of California, and gentle winds are elsewhere over the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds prevail across the nearshore waters of Cabo Corrientes, to the east of Newton. A pulse of fresh to strong northerly winds is occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 6-8 ft in NW swell offshore of Baja California, and 5-7 ft in SW swell over the open waters off Mexico, and 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Newton will move to 18.1N 109.5W this evening, 18.4N 110.9W Fri morning, 19.0N 112.5W Fri evening, 19.4N 114.0W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 19.6N 115.5W Sat evening, and weaken to a remnant low near 19.8N 117.0W Sun morning. Newton will dissipate early Mon. High pressure well offshore of California will maintain a ridge across the regional waters through the weekend. As the remnant low of Madeline shifts west of 117W today, northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters will gradually diminish into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate W to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, while light and variable winds are north of the trough from the waters of El Salvador to Tehuantepec. Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell across the offshore waters. For the forecast, little chance in the current pattern is expected. Moderate monsoonal winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters through Thu before weakening modestly into the weekend, then freshening S of 07N Sun and Mon. Cross equatorial S swell is expected to maintain seas of 5-7 ft across the regional waters through the weekend, then increase Mon night and Tue as new SW swell arrives. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of the remnants of Madeline, a weak pressure gradient prevails north of the monsoon trough, with mainly gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Seas are 6-7 ft in northerly swell north of 25N and west of 120W, with seas in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-8 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. Pulses of cross- equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W, and maintain seas to 8 ft along the equator through Mon. The remnants of Madeline will move westward and gradually weaken through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the NW semicircle of the low, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in NE swell. Winds south of the monsoon trough will freshen E of 120W Mon and Tue. $$ ERA