000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221006 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Sep 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Newton is centered near 17.7N 107.8W at 0900 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Maximum seas have built to 12 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm E and 75 nm W semicircles. Newton is forecast to move on a west- northwest track for the next couple of days, and may strengthen a little more during the next 24 hours before reaching less favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions. The system is then forecast to continue moving westward and weaken to a tropical depression by midday Sat, and gradually dissipate through Sun. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N74W to 13N88W to 17N104W, then resumes from 16N110W to 12N124W to 13N130W to 12N134W. The ITCZ extends from 12N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N east of 105W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 87W and 106W and from 10.5N to 15N between 111W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on recently upgraded T.S. Newton. Elsewhere, the remnant low of Madeline is centered near 22N116W. Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh NE winds within 240 nm across the NW quadrant, where seas are 9 to 10 ft. Outside of the remnants of Madeline and T.S. Newton, moderate to fresh winds northerly are noted west of Baja California Norte, and light to moderate SE to E winds are occurring E of the remnants of Madeline, across the offshore waters of Baja Sur. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail over the northern Gulf of California, and gentle winds are elsewhere over the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds prevail across the nearshore waters of Cabo Corrientes, to the east of Newton. A pulse of fresh to strong northerly winds is occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 6-8 ft in NW swell offshore of Baja California, and 5-7 ft in SW swell over the open waters off Mexico, and 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure well offshore of California will maintain a ridge across the regional waters through the weekend. As the remnant low of Madeline shifts west of 117W this morning, northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters will gradually diminish into the weekend. Tropical Storm Newton is expected to maintain a WNW motion, reaching near 18N 109.1W midday Thu, near 18.6N 112W midday Fri, then begin to weaken and become a tropical depression near 19.3N 115W midday Sat, then gradually dissipate on Sun. Newton is a small system, and tropical storm force winds and high seas will remain confined to very near the center. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate W to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, while light and variable winds are north of the trough from the waters of El Salvador to Tehuantepec. Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell across the offshore waters. For the forecast, Little chance in the current pattern is expected. Moderate monsoonal winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters through Thu before weakening modestly into the weekend, then freshening S of 07N Sun and Mon. Cross equatorial S swell is expected to maintain seas of 5-7 ft across the regional waters through the weekend, then increase Mon night and Tue as new SW swell arrives. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of the remnants of Madeline, a weak pressure gradient prevails north of the monsoon trough, with mainly gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Seas are 6-7 ft in northerly swell north of 25N and west of 120W, with seas in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-8 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. Pulses of cross- equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W, and maintain seas to 8 ft along the equator through Mon. The remnants of Madeline will move westward and gradually weaken through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the NW semicircle of the low, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in NE swell. Winds south of the monsoon trough will freshen E of 120W Mon and Tue. $$ Stripling