262 AXPZ20 KNHC 220405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Sep 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... The small cyclone offshore of Mexico has strengthened this evening and is now Tropical Storm Newton. T. S. Newton is centered near 17.6N 107W at 0300 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm N and 30 nm S semicircles. Newton is forecast to move on a west-northwest track for the next couple of days, and will likely strengthen during the next 24-36 hours before reaching less favorable oceanic and atmospheric condition. The system is forecast to weaken below tropical storm intensity Fri night or early Sat morning, and gradually dissipate through Sun. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13.5N78W to 12.5N86W to 16N102.5W, then resumes from 15.5N110W to 13N121W to 14N132W to 11.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N east of 104W, and from 10N to 14.5N between 111W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on recently upgraded T.S. Newton. Elsewhere, the remnant low of Madeline is centered near 22N115.5W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 11 ft are within 150 nm over the NW semicircle of the low. Outside of Madeline and T.S. Newton, moderate to fresh winds northerly are noted west of Baja California Norte, and fresh SE to E winds occurring E of the remnants of Madeline, across the outer offshore waters of Baja Sur. Moderate southerly winds prevail over the northern Gulf of California, and gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the Gulf of California. Fresh southeasterly winds prevail across the nearshore coastal waters of Cabo Corrientes, to the east of Newton, while fresh northerly winds area seen across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are in the 6-8 ft over the open waters off Mexico and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure well offshore of California will maintain a ridge across the regional waters, and support gradually weakening northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters into the weekend. Tropical Storm Newton is expected to maintain a WNW motion, reaching near 18N 108.2W early Thu morning, near 18.6N 110.7W early Fri morning, then begin to weaken and become a tropical depression near 19.3N 113.3W early Sat morning, then gradually dissipate into Sun. Newton is a small system and storm force winds and high seas will remain confined to very near the center. The remnant low of Madeline shift west of the area tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate W to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and light and variable winds are north of the trough from the Gulf of Fonseca to Tehuantepec. Seas are 5-8 ft in S swell across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters through Thu before weakening modestly into the weekend. Cross hemispheric S swell is expected to maintain seas of 5-7 ft across the regional waters through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of the remnants of Madeline, a weak pressure gradient prevails north of the monsoon trough with mainly gentle to locally moderate winds prevailing. Seas are around 7 ft in northerly swell north of 28N and west of 120W, with seas in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-8 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. Northerly swell will subside to 6-7 ft across the northern waters through Fri morning. Pulses of cross- equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W, and maintain seas to 8 ft along the equator through Fri. As the remnants of Madeline move westward and gradually weakens through Thu, fresh to strong winds will remain across the NW semicircle of the low, and generate E to NE swell and seas of 8 to 9 ft just ahead of it. $$ Stripling