000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212104 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 17.1N 105.3W at 21/2100 UTC moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 103W and 108W. Seas are peaking near 8 ft. The system is forecast to move on a west-northwest track for the next couple of days, reaching tropical storm intensity tonight. The system is forecast to weaken below tropical storm intensity Fri night, and gradually dissipate through Sun. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N86W to 17N104W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N east of 88W, from 10N to 16N between 89W and 100W, from 10N to 15N between 100W and 108W, and from 10N to 12N between 111W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on recently developed T.D. Fifteen-E. Elsewhere, the remnant low of Madeline is centered near 21N115.5W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 11 ft are over the NW semicircle of the low. Outside of Madeline and T.D. Fifteen-E, moderate to fresh winds are noted west of Baja California and over the northern Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the Gulf of California, fresh winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft over the open waters off Mexico and 3-4 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E near 17.1N 105.3W 1007 mb at 2 PM PDT moving W at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Fifteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.5N 106.4W Thu morning, move to 17.8N 107.8W Thu afternoon, 17.9N 108.9W Fri morning, 18.2N 110.0W Fri afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.5N 111.5W Sat morning, and become a remnant low and move to 18.9N 112.6W Sat afternoon. Fifteen-E will dissipate Sun afternoon. The remnant low of Madeline is centered near 21N115.5W. The remnant low will shift west of the area tonight. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through the next few days, with winds gradually diminishing across Baja Norte Thu through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate W to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and light and variable winds are north of the trough from the Gulf of Fonseca to Tehuantepec. Seas are 5-8 ft in S swell across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters through Thu before weakening slightly through the weekend. Seas of 6-8 ft in S swell will continue through Wed before subsiding modestly Thu and Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of the remnants of Madeline, a weak pressure gradient prevails north of the monsoon trough with mainly gentle to locally moderate winds prevailing. Seas are around 7 ft in northerly swell north of 28N and west of 120W, with seas in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters. Northerly swell will subside to 6-7 ft across the northern waters this morning. Pulses of cross-equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W, and raise seas to 8 ft along the equator by this evening. As the remnants of Madeline move westward and gradually weakens through Thu, fresh to strong winds will remain across the NW semicircle of the low, and generate E to NE swell and seas of 8 to 9 ft just ahead of it. $$ AL