000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211501
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Sep 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low 
pressure located just off the coast of southwestern Mexico  
continue to show signs of organization early this morning. Fresh
to locally strong winds, and seas to 8 ft are in the vicinity of
this low. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive 
for additional development and a tropical depression could form 
from this system in the next several days. This system has a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next few days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N86W to 17N104W to 14N120W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 01N to 07N east of 84W, from 10N to 15N between 86W and
100W, from 10N to 19N between 100W and 107W, and from 10N to 12N
between 110W and 131W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on an area of low pressure off the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the potential for tropical
cyclone development.

The remnant low of Madeline is centered near 21N115W. Fresh to
strong winds, and seas to 10 ft are over the NW semicircle of 
the low. Outside of Madeline and the low pressure area mentioned
above, moderate to fresh winds are noted west of Baja California,
gentle to moderate winds are over the Gulf of California, fresh
winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and light to gentle winds
are elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft over the open waters off
Mexico and 3-4 ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the remnant low of Madeline will shift west of
the area tonight. A second area of low pressure is just off the 
coast of SW Mexico. Environmental conditions appear to be 
conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is
likely to form in the next day or two. The system is forecast to
move west- northwestward near or just south of southwestern 
Mexico over the next day or so, then away from the coast of 
Mexico through the end of the week. Elsewhere, a surface ridge 
will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja 
California through the next few days, with winds gradually 
diminishing across Baja Norte Thu through Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate W to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and 
light and variable winds are north of the trough from the Gulf of
Fonseca to Tehuantepec. Seas are 5-8 ft in S swell across the 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds will persist across 
the offshore forecast waters through Thu before weakening
slightly through the weekend. Seas of 6-8 ft in S swell will 
continue through Wed before subsiding modestly Thu and Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Outside of the remnants of Madeline, a weak pressure gradient 
prevails north of the monsoon trough with mainly gentle to 
locally moderate winds prevailing. Seas are around 7 ft in 
northerly swell north of 28N and west of 120W, with seas in the 
5-7 ft range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with 
seas in the 5-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern 
forecast waters. Northerly swell will subside to 6-7 ft across 
the northern waters this morning. Pulses of cross-equatorial S 
to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 
130W, and raise seas to 8 ft along the equator by this evening. 
As the remnants of Madeline move westward and gradually weakens 
through Thu, fresh to strong winds will remain across the NW 
semicircle of the low, and generate E to NE swell and seas of 8 
to 9 ft just ahead of it.

$$
AL