000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located just off the coast of southwestern Mexico near 17N 104.5W continue to show signs of organization early this morning. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development and a tropical depression could form from this system in the next several days. This system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation in the next few days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N77.5W to 13.5N90W to 18.5N106W, and then resumes near 15.5N116.5W to 13.5N132W to 10.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08.5N E of 93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 17.5N between 86W and 97W, and from 10N to 15N between 99W and 132W. Scattered to numerous strong convection noted from 16N to 18N between 103W and 106W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Post-Tropical Cyclone Madeline is centered near 21.5N114W 1005 MB at 0600 UTC moving W at 6 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas to 10 ft are occurring across the NW quadrant. There is no significant deep convection associated to Madeline. Conditions continue to gradually improve across the waters of Baja California Sur, where fresh southerly winds continue near the coast and are strong offshore. Seas are estimated to be 7-9 ft in S to SW swell across these waters. This system will continue on a westward track for the next several day, with fresh to strong winds and seas 9-10 ft persisting across the NW semicircle over the next few days. Outside of the remnants of Madeline, moderate to fresh Nly winds prevail across the near shore waters of Baja California Norte and across the offshore waters of Baja Sur, where seas are 6-7 ft in NW swell that is beginning to merge with S swell from Madeline. Gentle to moderate mostly southerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of California, where southerly swell from Madeline persists across south and central portions producing seas 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel, where seas are 6-7 ft. A pulse of fresh to strong northerly winds has moved across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and is expected to persist through Wed. This is producing seas of 6-8 ft there. For the forecast, The remnants of Madeline will continue tracking westward over the next several days, allowing for quickly improving marine conditions across the Baja Sur and southern Gulf of California waters today. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through the next few days, with winds gradually diminishing across Baja Norte Thu through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate W to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and light and variable winds are north of the trough from the Gulf of Fonseca to Tehuantepec. Seas are 5-8 ft in S swell across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters through Thu before weakening slightly through the weekend. Seas of 6-8 ft in S swell will continue through Wed before subsiding modestly Thu and Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of the remnants of Madeline, a weak pressure gradient prevails north of the monsoon trough with mainly gentle to locally moderate winds prevailing. Seas are in around 7 ft in northerly swell north of 28N and west of 120W, with seas in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters. Northerly swell will subside to 6-7 ft across the northern waters this morning. Pulses of cross-equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W, and raise seas to 8 ft along the equator Wed evening. As the remnants of Madeline move westward and gradually weakens through Thu, fresh to strong winds will remain across the NW semicircle of the low, and generate E to NE swell and seas of 8 to 9 ft just ahead of it. $$ Stripling