000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202101 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Madeline has degenerated into a Post-Tropical Cyclone, centered near 21.3N 112.5W at 20/2100 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking near 12 ft. There is no significant deep convection associated to Madeline. The system will continue on a westward track, with fresh to strong winds prevailing over the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 18N106W, and then resumes near 18N114W to 13N120W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 86W, from 09N to 17N between 94W and 104W, and from 09N to 12N between 105W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Post- Tropical Cyclone Madeline. Outside of Madeline, moderate to fresh winds prevail west of Baja California Norte, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, 2-4 ft over the northern Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft over the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Madeline has degenerated into a post- tropical cyclone. The system is centered near 21.3N 112.5W 1004 mb at 2 PM PDT moving W at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. The system will continue tracking westward over the next several days. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through the next few days. Winds and seas across the southern Gulf of California and Baja Sur waters will gradually improve tonight as the system moves W and exits the area. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico by midweek. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves generally west- northwestward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate W to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and light and variable winds are north of the trough from the Gulf of Fonseca to Tehuantepec. Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell across the offshore waters, with mixed W swell across the waters W of 88W. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters through Thu. Seas of 6-8 ft in S swell will continue through tonight before subsiding modestly through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Post- Tropical Cyclone Madeline. Outside of Madeline, a weak pressure gradient prevails north of the monsoon trough with mainly gentle to locally moderate winds prevailing. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in northerly swell north of 28N and west of 120W, with seas in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters. Northerly swell will subside to 7 ft today. Pulses of cross-equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W, and raise seas to 8 ft along the equator Wed evening. As T.D. Madeline moves westward and gradually weakens through Thu, fresh to strong winds will remain across the NW semicircle of the low, and generate E to NE swell and seas of 8 to 10 ft just ahead of it. $$ AL