000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201502 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Madeline is centered near 21.2N 112.0W at 20/1500 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking near 13 ft. There is no significant deep convection associated to Madeline. Madeline is forecast to become a remnant low today. Southerly swell generated by Madeline will continue to spread northward across the waters of Baja California Sur, and inside the south and central portions of the Gulf of California during the next 24 hours. These swells will produce large and dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N88W to 12N88W to 18N105W, then resumes near 18N114W to 14N121W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N E of 86W, from 09N to 18N between 93W and 106W, and from 09N to 11N between 105W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.D. Madeline. Outside of Madeline, moderate to fresh winds prevail west of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong winds are noted south of the Tehuantepec region. Gentle to moderate winds are over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, 2-4 ft over the northern Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft over the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Madeline near 21.2N 112.0W 1002 mb at 8 AM PDT moving W at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Madeline will become a remnant low and move to 21.4N 113.1W this evening, 21.4N 114.5W Wed morning, 21.4N 116.0W Wed evening, 21.3N 117.6W Thu morning, 21.2N 119.0W Thu evening, and 21.0N 120.8W Fri morning. A surface ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through the next few days and help to maintain the westward motion of Madeline. Winds and seas across the southern Gulf of California and Baja Sur waters will gradually improve through late today as Madeline moves W and exits the area. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico by midweek. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves generally west- northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate W to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and light and variable winds are north of the trough from the Gulf of Fonseca to Tehuantepec. Seas are 6-7 ft in S swell across the offshore waters, with mixed W swell across the waters W of 88W. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters through Thu. Seas of 6-8 ft in S swell will continue through tonight before subsiding modestly through mid week. An area of low pressure could form between Papagayo and Tehuantepec during the next few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward offshore of the coast. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.D. Madeline. Outside of Madeline, a weak pressure gradient prevails north of the monsoon trough with mainly gentle to locally moderate winds prevailing. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in northerly swell north of 24N and west of 120W, with seas in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters. Northerly swell will subside to 7 ft today. Pulses of cross-equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W, and raise seas to 8 ft along the equator Wed evening. As T.D. Madeline moves westward and gradually weakens through Thu, fresh to strong winds will remain across the NW semicircle of the low, and generate E to NE swell and seas of 8 to 10 ft just ahead of it. $$ AL