000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192141 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Madeline is centered near 20.9N 109.8W at 19/2100 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Maximum seas at this time are estimated at 19 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 17N to 23N between 110W and 113W. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Madeline is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Wednesday. Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southern Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.S. Madeline NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 17N102W, then resumes near 15N114W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Madeline, scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 88W and 106W, and from 11N to 17N between 109W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Madeline. A broad surface ridge extends eastward across the offshore of Baja California producing light to moderate NW to N winds from Baja Sur northward. Seas are generally in the 6-7 ft range. Fresh to strong winds have spread northward to the outer waters offshore of Cabo San Lucas, where seas are 8-12 ft and extend across the entrance to the Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Gulf of California. Conditions across the near and offshore waters from Sinaloa to Nayarit are seeing strong to tropical storm force winds currently with high seas of 12 to 19 ft. These conditions will shift NW with Madeline through midweek. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Madeline will move to 21.2N 110.9W Tue morning, 21.6N 112.3W Tue afternoon, become post- tropical and move to 21.9N 113.6W Wed morning, weaken to a remnant low near 22.0N 115.0W Wed afternoon, 21.9N 116.4W Thu morning, and 21.7N 117.8W Thu afternoon. Madeline will change little in intensity as it moves to 21.6N 120.5W Fri afternoon. The surface ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through the next few days. Winds and seas across the southern Gulf of California will gradually improve through Tue as Madeline moves away. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico by midweek. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves generally west- northwestward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and light and variable winds are north of the trough from the Gulf of Papagayo region to Guatemala coastal waters. Seas are 6-8 ft in SW swell across the offshore waters, with areas of 8-9 ft across the far outer offshore waters W of 89W. A moist and unstable environment interacting with the monsoon trough persists across the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters, with seas of 6-8 ft in SW swell through tonight, before subsiding modestly through mid week. A very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will help maintain active weather across most of the offshore waters over the next few days. An area of low pressure could form between Papagayo and Tehuantepec during the next few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward offshore the coast. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Madeline. A weak cold front extends from 30N122W to 25N140W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds follow the front, with seas of 8-9 ft in NW swell. High pressure extends a weak ridge to the S of the front and then SE across the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this system and the monsoon trough supports an area of moderate NE winds from 15N to 19N W of 125W. Seas are 6-7 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough along with 5-8 ft seas, outside of T.S. Madeline. Cross equatorial SW swell continues to move into the region and is maintaining seas of 6-7 ft to the south of the monsoon trough and west of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters. The cold front will continue to push southward to 24N-23N through early Wed while weakening. Seas of 8-9 ft in northerly swell will follow the front though Tue. Additional pulses of cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W. As T.S. Madeline turns westward through Wed while weakening, fresh to strong NE winds will remain across the northern semicircle of the low, and generate E to NE swell spreading ahead of it. $$ ERA