126 AXPZ20 KNHC 191548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Sep 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Madeline is centered near 20.6N 108.8W at 19/1500 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Maximum seas at this time are estimated at 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 16N to 22N between 108W and 113W. On the forecast track, the center of Madeline will gradually move away from the coast of Mexico and pass to the south of the Baja California peninsula by tonight. Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula coast and the coast of west-central Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.S. Madeline NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 17N101W, then resumes near 14N117W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Madeline, scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 91W and 105W, and from 11N to 16N between 111W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Madeline. A broad and weak ridge extends eastward across the offshore of Baja California producing light to moderate NW to N winds from Baja Sur northward. Seas are generally in the 6-7 ft range. Fresh to strong winds have begun to spread northward to the outer waters offshore of Cabo San Lucas, where seas are except 7-9 ft and extend across the entrance to the Gulf of California. Gentle southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Gulf of California. Conditions across the near and offshore waters from Colima to Nayarit are seeing strong to tropical storm force winds tonight with high seas of 12 to 20 ft. These conditions will shift NW with Madeline through Mon. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Madeline will move to 21.0N 109.9W this evening, 21.4N 111.2W Tue morning, 21.7N 112.5W Tue evening, weaken to a remnant low near 21.9N 113.9W Wed morning, 21.9N 115.2W Wed evening, and 21.9N 116.6W Thu morning. Madeline will change little in intensity as it moves to 21.9N 119.4W early Fri. The surface ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through the next few days. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft will build across the southern Gulf of California Mon and then gradually improve Mon night through Tue. Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes today. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico Tue through Wed. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate W-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, except for an area of fresh SW winds well offshore of Costa Rica and the Papagayo region. Light and variable winds are north of the trough from the Gulf of Papagayo region to Guatemala coastal waters. Seas are 6-8 ft in SW swell across the offshore waters, with areas of 8-9 ft across the far outer offshore waters W of 87W. A moist and unstable environment interacting with the monsoon trough persists across the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters, with seas of 6-8 ft in SW swell through tonight, before subsiding modestly through mid week. A very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will help maintain active weather across most of the offshore waters over the next few days. An area of low pressure could form between Papagayo and Tehuantepec during the next few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward offshore the coast. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Madeline. A weak cold front has entered the northern portion of the discussion area, extending from 30N124W to 26N140W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds follow the front, with seas of 8-10 ft in N swell. High pressure extends a weak ridge to the S of the front and then SE across the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of about 120W. The pressure gradient between this system and the monsoon trough supports an area of moderate NE winds from 15N to 20N W of 128W. Seas are 6-7 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough along with 5-8 ft seas, outside of T.S. Madeline. Cross equatorial SW swell continues to move into the region and is maintaining seas of 6-7 ft to the south of the monsoon trough and west of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters. The cold front will continue to push southward to near 24N through early Wed while weakening. Seas of 8-10 ft in northerly swell will follow the front reaching the waters N of 27N and W of 126W though Tue. Additional pulses of cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W. As T.S. Madeline turns westward through Wed while weakening, fresh to strong NE winds will remain across the NW quadrant of the low, and generate E to NE swell spreading ahead of it. $$ ERA