000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Sep 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 1800 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Lester was estimated to be inland near 16.5N and 98.5W. At that time, Tropical Storm Warnings were discontinued for SW Mexico but the heavy rain threats remain. At 17/2100 UTC, the remnants of Lester are centered near 16.5N 98.5W moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The remnants of Lester are forecast to continue to produce heavy rain along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico today. Gusty winds will be possible in areas of heavy rain along the coast. These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. At 2100 UTC, the last public advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is upgraded to Tropical Storm Madeline at 17/2100 UTC. At this time, Madeline is centered near 15.9N 106.9W at 17/2100 UTC moving N at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm W semicircle. A broad area of fresh to strong SW-W winds prevail S of this tropical cyclone. Madeline is drifting toward the north. A faster northward motion is expected by tonight, followed by a slow counter- clockwise turn toward the west through Tuesday. Slight strengthening is forecast for the next day or so, with fluctuations in intensity possible after that. Swells generated by Madeline will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico for the next few days. High surf associated with Madeline will spread northward and begin to affect the coast of Baja California late this weekend or early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.D. Thirteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N84W to 14N95W, then resumes from near 14N112W to 1012 mb low pressure located near 11N139W. Aside from the convection associated with Madeline, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 06N to 08N E of 82W, including parts of the Gulf of Panama, from 09N to 11N between 89W and 91W, from 12N to 17.5N between 96W and 104W, and from 10N to 11N W of 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Madeline. A ridge dominates the offshore of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to moderate NW winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Los Cabos. Seas are generally in the 6-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California. Marine conditions S of Cabo Corrientes are dominated by recently upgraded Tropical Storm Madeline. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Madeline will move to 17.0N 107.0W Sun morning, 18.4N 107.8W Sun afternoon, 19.5N 108.9W Mon morning, 20.2N 110.2W Mon afternoon, 20.4N 111.3W Tue morning, and 20.5N 112.6W Tue afternoon. Madeline will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.5N 115.0W Wed afternoon. A ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through the weekend and maintain moderate to fresh winds. Gentle to occasionally moderate mainly southerly winds and 1-3 ft seas are expected in the Gulf of California. Marine conditions will begin to deteriorate between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes on Sun as T.S. Madeline moves northward. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data indicate that gentle to moderate W-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, while light and variable winds are north of the trough from the Gulf of Papagayo region to Guatemala coastal waters. Seas are 6-8 ft in SW swell across the offshore waters, with the exception of 8-9 ft well offshore of Guatemala. A moist and unstable environment interacting with the monsoon trough persists across the area. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters, with seas of 6-9 ft in SW swell through Sun. A very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will help maintain active weather across most of the offshore waters over the next few days. An area of low pressure ould form over the far eastern portion of the eastern North Pacific basin early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward near or offshore the coast. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Lester and a low pressure area located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. High pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of about 118W, centered on a 1033 mb high near 45N154W. The pressure gradient between this system and a 1011 mb low pressure located near 11N139W supports an area of fresh NE winds from 11N to 14N W of 137W. Seas are 7-8 ft within these winds based on an altimeter pass. Another area of fresh to locally strong NE winds is noted from 16N to 19N between 127W and 131W, likely associated with a developing low pressure along the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough along with 5-8 ft seas, outside of T.S. Madeline. Cross equatorial SW swell continues to move into the region and is maintaining seas of 6-8 ft to the south of the monsoon trough and west of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the discussion area on Sun, extending roughly from 30N125W to 26N135W to 27N140W by Sun night. Seas of 8-10 ft in northerly swell will follow the front reaching the waters N of 27N and W of 126W by Mon morning. Additional pulses of cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W. $$ GR