000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170409
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Sep 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lester is centered near 14.8N 97.8W, or 325 km SE
of Acapulco, Mexico at 17/0300 UTC, moving NW at 10 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed remains 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate 
to strong convection is within 360 nm across the W semicircle. 
Lester is expected to continue moving NW tonight and Sat, with 
the center of the system expected to cross the coast of 
southwestern Mexico Saturday or Saturday night, along the coast 
of Guerrero to the west of Acapulco, and dissipate over 
southwestern Mexico on Sunday morning. Gradual strengthening is 
forecast through Saturday morning. Rapid weakening is expected 
after the center crosses the coast of Mexico. Heavy rains are 
expected to begin tonight. These rains may produce flash and 
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher 
coastal terrain. Swells generated by Lester are affecting 
portions of the coast of southern Mexico and this will continue 
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
T.D. Thirteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located near 14.5N106.5W or a few hundred
miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days. This disturbance is forecast to meander off the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of this week, and
then begin to move north to northwestward early next week.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 210 nm NW
and 120 nm SW semicircles. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 11.5N TO 17N between 104W AND 114W.
A broad area of fresh to strong SW-W winds is S of the monsoon 
trough in the vicinity of the low center, covering the waters 
from 08N to 15N between 100W and 112W. Seas of 8-13 ft in long 
period S to SW swell are occurring across this area. The latest 
Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of 
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both areas.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N73.5W to 10.5N85W to 
14.5N94W, then resumes from near 14N109.5W to 11.5N121W to
13N128W to low pres near 11.5N137W to 11N140W. Aside for the 
convection associated with Lester and the low pressure near
14.5N106.5W, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 420 nm of the coastline E of 94W to the coast of 
Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
elsewhere within 60 nm either side of the trough between 118W 
and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Lester
and a low pressure area located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A ridge dominates the offshore of Baja California producing moderate
to locally fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle
to moderate NW winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Los Cabos. Seas
are generally in the 6-7 ft range except to 8 ft offshore of Baja
Norte. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the 
Gulf of California. Marine conditions S of Cabo Corrientes are 
dominated by long period SW swell and swell being generate by 
 the above mentioned low pressure area with a high chance of 
tropical cyclone formation.

For the forecast, Lester will continue moving NW and reach near
15.9N 99.1W Sat morning, and move inland near 17.4N 100.6W Sat 
evening, and weaken to a tropical depression as it continues
moving inland overnight Sat through Sun morning before
dissipating Sun afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in 
effect across the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Michoacan. A 
ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja 
California through the upcoming weekend and maintain moderate to 
fresh winds. Gentle to occasionally moderate mainly southerly 
winds and 1-3 ft seas are expected in the Gulf of California. 
Marine conditions will begin to deteriorate between Los Cabos 
and Cabo Corrientes on Sat night, as the low pressure currently 
located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico moves
northward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh W-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough, while light and variable winds are north of the trough 
from the Gulf of Papagayo region to Guatemala coastal waters. 
Seas are 6-8 ft in SW swell across the offshore waters, with the
exception of 8-9 ft well offshore of Guatemala. A moist and 
unstable environment interacting with the monsoon trough persists
across the area, mainly N of 05N, resulting in active showers 
and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds will persist
across the offshore forecast waters, with seas of 6-9 ft in SW
swell through Sun. Winds could increase to moderate to fresh 
between northern Costa Rica and Guatemala over the weekend as a 
broad area of low pressure develops along the monsoon trough. A 
very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will help 
maintain active weather across most of the offshore waters over 
the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Lester
and a low pressure area located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

High pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough 
and west of about 1180W, centered on a 1034 mb high near 
45N156W. The pressure gradient between this system and a 1011 mb
low pressure located near 11.5N137W supports an area of fresh NE
winds from 12N to 15N between 134W and 139W based on recent 
satellite derived wind data. Seas are 7-8 ft within these winds. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of 
the monsoon trough along with 5-8 ft seas, outside of T.S. Lester
and a low pressure area located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. A broad area of fresh to strong SW-W winds 
prevail S of these tropical systems.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
northern forecast waters. A weak cold front is forecast to enter
the discussion area on Sun, extending roughly from 30N125W to
27N135W to 28N140W by Sun night. Seas of 8-9 ft in northerly
swell will follow the front reaching the waters N of 28N and W 
of 125W by Mon morning. An area of fresh NE winds with seas to 8
ft will move westward in tandem with the low pressure located 
near 11.5N137W. Additional pulses of cross-equatorial SW swell 
will continue to propagate across the forecast waters east of 
130W. Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate across the 
offshore waters from Oaxaca to Michoacan due to the approach of 
Lester.

$$
Stripling