032 AXPZ20 KNHC 142133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A low pressure system located near 15.5N108W or a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the west of its center of circulation, particularly from 14N to 16N between 108W and 112W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while meandering southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N95W. Development of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before reaching the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico, and possibly moving inland, over the weekend. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Satellite imagery show scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 10N to 14N between 93W and 102W. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N84W to a 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N95W to a 1007 mb low near located near 15.5N108W to a 1010 mb low pressure situated near 13N132W to beyond 11N140W. Aside for the convection associated with the low pressure systems, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 80W and 82W, from 07 to 09N between 88W and 92W, and from 11N to 15N between 129W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate NW winds N of Punta Eugenia, and the wind shift associated with a surface trough that extends from 28N116W to 22N120W. Light to gentle winds are noted between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes, including the entrance to the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to near 15N96W. As previously mentioned, a couple of low pressure systems, with the potential of tropical cyclone development, are over the offshore waters of the south and SW coast of Mexico. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Seas are generally 4-6 ft across the offshore forecast waters on Baja California, and between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes while seas of 6-8 ft in SW swell prevail S of Cabo Corrientes. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds and seas in the 1-3 ft range are noted. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build across the offshore waters of Baja California over the next 2 or 3 days supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds and seas of 5-7 ft the remainder of the work week. Gentle southerly winds and seas in the 1-3 ft range are expected in the Gulf of California. Marine conditions could deteriorate across the offshore waters between Oaxaca and Michoacan as the aforementioned low pressure systems develop. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds are noted N of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough which has its axis near 10N. Based on a recent altimeter pass, seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell across the offshore waters, with the exception of 6-8 ft between Ecuador and Galapagos Islands. Some convective activity is observed near the Azuero peninsula. A moist and unstable environment interacting with the monsoon trough persists across the area . For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds will persist across the offshore forecast waters, with seas of 6-8 ft in SW swell. Winds could increase to moderate to fresh between northern Costa Rica and Guatemala toward the upcoming weekend as a broad area of low pressure develops along the monsoon trough. A very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will help maintain active weather across most of the offshore waters over the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1018 mb high pressure dominates roughly the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. The related light pressure gradient is allowing for mostly light to gentle winds over the NW corner of the forecast area. Mainly moderate northerly winds are seen N of the surface trough that extends 28N116W to 22N120W, and N of a 1010 mb low pressure located along the monsoon trough near 13N132W. An area of fresh to strong SW to W winds, with seas of 8-9 ft is noted from 10N to 15.5N between 105W and 112W associated with a low pressure located near 15.5N108W. Another area with similar winds and seas is noted from 09N to 13N between 95W and 101W related to a second low pressure located near 13N95W. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build across the northern forecast waters over the next few days supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft. Winds will increase some between the ridge and the low pressure located near 13N132W. Marine conditions could deteriorate E of 110W as a couple of low pressure currently located along the monsoon trough develop. Winds will likely increase to strong speeds later in the week as tropical cyclone genesis takes place offshore the south and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Wave heights could build to near 12 ft near the strongest winds. Additional pulses of cross- equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters E of 110W. $$ GR