000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132209
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Sep 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa
Rica near 10N85W to 15N100W to a 1009 mb low near 16N108W to 
12N123W to 11N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate  
convection is noted from 04N to 12N E of 92W, from 08N to 17N 
between 90W and 106W, and from 06N to 14N between 110W and 133W.
Scattered moderate convection associated with the low pressure 
is from 13N to 18N between 108W and 114W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the offshore 
waters of Baja California and in the Gulf of California. Seas 
range between 4-6 ft off of Baja California and 1-3 ft in the 
Gulf. Light to gentle variable winds are across most of the SW 
Mexico offshore waters with seas 5-7 ft in S to SW swell, except
the outer Michoacan and Guerrero offshore waters where a 1009 mb
low near 16N108W is supporting fresh SW winds and seas to 8 ft. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed across most the 
SW Mexican offshore waters from Chiapas to Guerrero. 

For the forecast, winds across the Baja California offshore
waters will increase moderate to fresh later on Wed and into Thu 
as high pressure builds across the area. A trough of low 
pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico is forecast 
to merge with the disturbance off the southwestern coast of 
Mexico around midweek or possibly develop as a separate system. 
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive 
for development by the middle part of the week. Consequently, a 
tropical depression is likely to form toward the end of the week 
while it moves slowly westward near the coast of southern and 
southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds and building seas 
offshore southern Mexico late in the week. This system has a low 
chance of formation in the next 48 hours and high chance in the 
next 5 days. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are noted across the Central 
American and Colombia offshore waters with seas in the 5-7 ft 
range in S to SW swell. Moderate to locally fresh southerly 
winds are remain across the offshores waters of Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands with 5-7 ft seas. A moist and unstable 
environment is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms 
across the majority of the Central American offshore waters and 
off the Colombia coast.

For the forecast, winds across the Central American offshore 
waters will increase to fresh later in the week as broad low 
pressure south of southwestern Mexico organizes. Winds over the 
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters will diminish to 
gentle to moderate by Wed and continue through the rest of the
week. Cross-equatorial swell across the Ecuador and Galapagos 
Islands offshore waters will slowly subside by Thu night. A very
moist and unstable atmospheric environment will help maintain 
active weather across most of the offshore waters over the next 
few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Relatively weak high pressure remains over the area north of the
monsoon trough and west of 120W. The related light pressure 
gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate trade winds north of 
the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with seas ranging 5-6 ft. 
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon 
trough. Wave heights of 7-8 ft in long-period south to southwest
swell are noted S of 14N between 103W and 125W. Otherwise, the 
remnant low tropical cyclone Kay is west of the Baja California 
Norte offshore waters near 26N121W, with a central pressure of 
1013 mb. Gentle to moderate winds remains near the low center. 
Wave heights of 5-6 ft are in the general area of the low. 

For the forecast, the remnant low of Kay will weaken to a trough
tonight. The weak high pressure is expected to continue over the
next few days, with gentle to moderate winds north of the 
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and associated 
wave heights of 8-9 ft in southerly swell will continue south of 
the monsoon trough through the next few days. These winds will 
likely increase to strong speeds east of 110W later in the week 
as tropical cyclone genesis takes place offshore the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Wave heights could build to 12 ft near the 
strongest winds. The long-period cross-equatorial swell will 
continue through most of the week, with 8 ft seas subsiding 
toward the end of the week.

$$
Ramos