000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131615 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. CORRECTED REMAINDER OF AREA SECTION Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 15N100W to a 1008 mb low near 16N108W to 12N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 92W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 93W and 106W, and from 06N to 12N between 113W and 134W. Numerous moderate convection associated with the low pressure is from 13N to 17N between 107W and 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle variable winds are noted across the offshore waters of Baja California and in the Gulf of California. Seas range 4-6 ft off of Baja California and 1-3 ft in the Gulf. Fresh northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas 5-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are across most of the SW Mexico offshore waters with seas 5-7 ft, except the outer Michoacan and Guerrero offshore waters where a 1008 mb low near 16N108W is supporting fresh SW winds with seas to 8 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed across most the SW Mexican offshore waters from Chiapas to Guerrero and the Puerto Vallarta offshore waters. For the forecast, winds across the Baja California offshore waters will increase moderate to fresh later on Wed and into Thu as high pressure builds across the area. Winds will become light to gentle across the Gulf of Tehuantepec later today. A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico is forecast to interact and merge with the disturbance off the southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek, and environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by that time. A tropical depression is likely to form during the latter part of this week while the system moves slowly westward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds and building seas offshore southern Mexico late in the week. This system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and high chance in the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are noted across the Central American offshore waters, with moderate SW winds noted S of 08N. Seas range 5-7 ft in S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate winds are noted off the Colombia offshores waters. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted across the offshores waters of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Cross-equatorial long-period south to southwest swell continues to propagate through the South American forecast waters, with 5-7 ft seas across most of these waters. Wave heights up to 8 ft are noted in the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters. A moist and unstable environment is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the majority of the Central American offshore waters and off the Colombia coast. For the forecast, winds across the Central American offshore waters will increase to fresh later in the week as broad low pressure south of southwestern Mexico organizes. Winds over the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters will diminish to gentle to moderate by Wed and continue through the rest of the week. The cross-equatorial swell across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters will linger in the area today and slowly subside by Thu night. A very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will help maintain active weather across most of the offshore waters over the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Relatively weak high pressure remains over the area north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. The related light pressure gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 105W, with seas ranging 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. Wave heights of 7-9 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are noted S of 14N between 103W and 125W. Cross-equatorial swell is also lingering across the southern forecast waters, S of 03N with seas 8-9 ft. Meanwhile, the remnant low tropical cyclone Kay is west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters near 26N120W, with a central pressure of 1013 mb. Gentle to moderate winds remains near the low center. Wave heights of 5-6 ft are in the general area of the low. For the forecast, the remnant low of Kay will weaken to a trough today. The weak high pressure is expected to continue over the next few days, with gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and associated wave heights of 8-9 ft in southerly swell will continue south of the monsoon trough through the next few days. These winds will likely increase to strong speeds east of 110W later in the week as tropical cyclone genesis takes place offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Wave heights could build to 12 ft near the strongest winds. The long-period cross-equatorial swell will continue through most of the week, with 8 ft seas subsiding toward the end of the week. $$ Ramos