000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122257 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 12 2022 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and Within 750 nm of Ecuador section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to northern Costa Rica to 11N86W to 14N93W to 14N101W to low pressure near 16N108W 1008 mb to 12N118W to 13N128W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough axis between 97W-102W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 110W-115W, also from 08N to 10N between 124W-128W and from 08N to 10N between 130W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kay just to the west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters near 28N122W, with a pressure of 1012 mb. The latest ASCAT data passes shows gentle to moderate winds near the low center. Wave heights of 6-7 ft are in the general area of the low. The low is forecast to drift southeast toward the Baja California offshore waters while weakening through tonight, and weaken to a trough on Tue while continuing to slowly drift southward over the next few days. Light to gentle variable winds are noted across the offshore waters of Baja California and in the Gulf of California as depicted in recent ASCAT data passes. The ASCAT data also revealed a small low pressure system near 16N108W. It has an analyzed pressure of 1008 mb. The ASCAT data also shows mainly moderate winds within 60 nm of the low, except for fresh to strong winds within 60 nm of the low in the SE quadrant. A large swath of fresh southeast to south winds is south of the monsoon trough segment that crosses the low. These winds extend south to near 01N. Seas with these winds are 7-8 ft due to a southeast to south swell. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are over the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico. Fresh to strong north to northeast gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as seen in the most recent ASCAT data pass over that part of the discussion area. Wave heights are generally in the 5-7 ft range across the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Lower wave heights of 1-3 ft are in the Gulf of California. Abundant deep layer tropical moisture is leading to scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection across most the southwest Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, winds across the Baja California offshore waters will increase moderate to fresh Tue night into Wed as high pressure builds across the area. The fresh to strong north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will become light and variable by early Tue afternoon. A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to interact and merge with the low pressure of 1008 mb currently near 16N108W around mid-week, and environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional development by that time. A tropical depression is likely to form during the latter part of this week while the system moves slowly westward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds and building seas offshore southern Mexico late in the week. This system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and high chance in the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are noted across the central American offshore waters. Gentle to locally fresh winds are noted off the southern Colombia offshores waters as well as over the offshores waters of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Cross-equatorial long-period south to southwest swell continues to propagate through the forecast waters. Wave heights are in the general range of 5-7 ft, with wave heights up to 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered clusters of showers and thunderstorms are over the majority of the Central American offshore waters, where a very moist and unstable environment in place there is conducive to sustain this activity. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds across the Central American offshore waters will increase to mainly fresh by late Wed night as broad low pressure south of southwestern Mexico organizes. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds over the offshore waters of Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will diminish slightly Wed and change little through Sat night. Wave heights are expected to build over the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands offshore waters tonight through Tue evening, then slowly subside later in the week. A very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will help maintain active weather across most of the offshore waters through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Relatively weak high pressure remains over the area north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. The related light pressure gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 105W where wave heights are generally 5-7 ft ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. Wave heights of 7-9 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are noted S of 12N between 93W and 127W. An area of wave heights to 8 ft is over the far western part of the area from 12N to 17N between 131W-140W due to persistent fresh northeast winds north of the monsoon trough segment that is in that part of the area. Low pressure along the monsoon trough near 12N130W is helping to increase the gradient there as well. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions are expected over the next couple of days. The remnant low of Kay over the northeast part of the area will weaken to a trough west Baja California Norte on Tue. The weak high pressure is expected to continue over the next few days, with gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and associated wave heights of 8-9 ft in southerly swell will continue south of the monsoon trough through the next few days. These winds will most likely increase to strong speeds east of about 113W on Thu as tropical cyclone genesis takes place offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Wave heights will peak to 10 or 11 ft with these winds. The long-period southerly swell will continue across most of the southern waters into Wed, at which time wave model guidance suggests that it will decay. The area of wave heights to 8 ft over the far western part of the area will subside late tonight. $$ Aguirre