000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122134 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2133 UTC Mon Sep 12 2022 Updated Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico...Updated Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to central Costa Rica to 10N85W to 14N100W to low pressure near 16N107W 1008 mb to 12N117W to 12N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 180 nm south of the trough axis between 97W-101W and within 60 nm south of the trough axis between 107W-108W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 109W-115W, within 120 nm south of the trough axis between 84W-89W and between 127W-135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kay west of the Baja California offshore waters near 28N122W, with a pressure of 1012 mb. The latest ASCAT data passes shows gentle to moderate winds near the low center. Wave heights of 6-7 ft are north of 26N between 121W-126W. The low is forecast to drift southeast toward the Baja California offshore waters while weakening today. This system should become a trough by Tue while continuing to slowly drift southward over the next few days. Light to gentle variable winds are noted across the offshore waters of Baja California and in the Gulf of California. Overnight ASCAT data shows an elongated low near 16N107W. It has an analyzed pressure of 1008 mb. A recent ASCAT pass revealed mainly moderate winds within 60 nm of the low, except for fresh to strong winds within 60 nm in the SE quadrant. A large swath of fresh southeast to south winds is south of the monsoon trough segment that crosses the low. These wind extend south to near 01N. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are over the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico. Fresh north to northeast gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wave heights are generally in the 5-7 ft range across the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Lower wave heights of 1-3 ft are in the Gulf of California. Abundant deep layer tropical moisture is leading to scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection across most the southwest Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, winds across the Baja California offshore waters will increase moderate to fresh Tue night into Wed as high pressure builds across the area. A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to interact and merge with low pressure of 1008 mb near 16N107W, and environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for additional development over the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week while the system moves slowly westward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds and building seas offshore southern Mexico late in the week. This system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and high chance in the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are noted across the central American offshore waters. Gentle to locally fresh winds are noted off the southern Colombia offshores waters as well as over the offshores waters of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Cross-equatorial long- period south to southwest swell continues to propagate through the forecast waters. Wave heights are in the general range of 5-7 ft, with wave heights up to 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered clusters of showers and thunderstorms are over the majority of the Central American offshore waters, where a very moist and unstable environment in place there is favorable to sustain this activity. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds across the Central American offshore waters will increase to mainly fresh by late Wed night as broad low pressure south of southwestern Mexico organizes Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds over the offshore waters of Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will diminish slightly Wed and change little through Sat night. Seas are expected to builds over the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands offshore waters through tonight through Tue evening, then slowly subside later in the week. A very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will help maintain active weather across most of the offshore waters through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Relatively weak high pressure is present over the area north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. The related light gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 105W where wave heights are generally 5-7 ft ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 7-9 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are noted S of 12N between 93W and 127W. An area of wave heights to 8 ft is over the far western part of the area from 13N to 18N between 132W-140W due to persistent fresh northeast winds north of the monsoon trough segment that is in that part of the area. Low pressure along the monsoon trough near 12N130W is helping to increase the gradient there as well. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions are expected over the next couple of days as the remnant low of Kay over the northeast part of the area gradually weakens to a trough west Baja California Norte. The weak high pressure is expected to continue over the next few days with gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and associated seas will persist south of the monsoon trough. The long-period southerly swell continue to longer across most of the southern waters into mid-week. An area of 8-9 ft wave heights will linger near the southern Mexico offshore waters as a low pressure system may develop later in the week. The area of wave heights to 8 ft over the far western part of the area will subside early on Tue. $$ Aguirre