000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111631 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Sep 11 2022

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Central America, 
Colombia, and 750 nm of Ecuador section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH..

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 15N97W to low 
pressure near 17N104W 1008 mb to 12N115W to 11N120W to 14N130W to 
13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 03N 
to 08N between 78W-84W, from 10N to 13N between 92W-96W, and within 
120 nm south of the trough between 104W-106W. Scattered moderate 
convection south of the trough from 10N to 11N between 104W-111W, 
within 120 nm south of the trough between 130W-135W and within 60 nm 
north of the trough between 138W-140W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kay is analyzed near 
31N122W with a pressure of 1008 mb. It is slowly moving
southwest.southwest. Latest ASCAT data passes show moderate to
fresh winds within about 360 nm of the low in the western
semicircle and gentle to moderate winds within 180 nm of the low
in the eastern semicircle. The earlier 8-9 ft seas due to
northwest to north swell that had propagated away from the low 
to south of 30N have decayed to just below 8 ft this morning. The
low is forecast to weaken as it slowly moves southwest to south 
of 30N through tonight. It will drift south-southeast Mon and Mon
night and weaken to a trough west of Baja California Tue.
 
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore 
waters of Baja California, and in the Gulf of California.
Overnight ASCAT data passes indicate some cyclonic turning in 
the wind field over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where moderate to 
fresh easterly winds prevail. Abundant deep layer moisture is 
leading to numerous clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection over the majority of the offshore forecast 
waters south of Jalisco.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northerly winds west of the
low will continue through Tue. Light to gentle variable winds 
over the offshore waters of Baja California Sur will increase to 
moderate speeds starting Tue as high pressure begins to build 
again across the region. A broad area of low pressure is likely 
to form near the coast of southern Mexico within the next couple 
of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive 
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by 
the middle to latter part of this week while the system moves 
slowly westward near the coast of southern and southwestern 
Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a 
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected 

Cross-equatorial long-period south to southwest swell continues 
to propagate through the forecast waters producing wave heights 
of 5-7 ft. Slighter higher wave heights of 6-8 ft are just beyond
the forecast waters. Latest ASCAT data passes indicate that 
mainly gentle to moderate southwest to winds are over these 
waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will continue across most of the forecast into the middle of the 
week. South to southwest swell from the Southern Hemisphere will 
continue to cross the equator producing wave heights of 6-8 ft 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands and 5-7 ft elsewhere. A 
very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will maintain active 
weather across most of the offshore waters through the period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is just west of the area along 141W from 20N to
27N. No convection is occurring with this feature. Relatively 
weak high pressure is present over the area north of the monsoon
trough and west of 125W. The related rather light gradient is 
allowing for gentle to moderate trade winds over the waters north
of the monsoon trough and west of 110W where wave heights are
generally 5-7 ft ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are 
south of the monsoon trough along with seas of 7-9 ft due 
to long-period southeast to south swell. The leading edge of
8 ft seas is about 180 nm to the southwest of the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, little change in the marine conditions are
expected over the next couple of days as the remnant low of Kay 
over the northeast part of the area gradually weakens to a 
trough west Baja California Norte. A weak high pressure center 
will be over the northwest corner of the area near 30N140W. 
Moderate to fresh southwest winds and associated seas will 
continue south of the monsoon trough. Additional pulses of long- 
period southerly swell will reach the equator today, and 
propagate northward over the next few days.

$$
Aguirre