000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110913
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH..

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N110W to 14N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found 
from 02N to 07N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 
17N between 88W and 105W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and
from 10N to 15N W of 128W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kay is analyzed near 
31N121W with a pressure of 1006 mb. This system is forecast to 
drift southward, and will meander near 30N122W today, moving into
the forecast waters tonight into Mon. Then, the low will move a 
little farther south on Tue while weakening. Recent satellite 
derived wind data show moderate to locally fresh winds on the W 
side of the low center. Over the forecast waters, an area of 
moderate NW winds, with seas of 8-9 ft in NW to N swell is seen N
of 29N between 121W and 125W. 

Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore
waters of Baja California, and in the Gulf of California.
Scatterometer data reveal some cyclonic turning in the wind field 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where moderate to fresh easterly 
winds prevail. Abundant cloudiness, with embedded clusters of 
moderate to strong convection, dominates the offshore forecast 
waters S of Jalisco.

For the forecast, a well defined cyclonic circulation associated
with the remnant low of Kay will persist across the offshore
waters of Baja California Norte through at least Mon, producing
gentle to moderate winds. Mainly light to gentle variable winds 
are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. 
High pressure will build again across the region by the middle of
the week with the normal gentle to moderate NW to N wind flow.

A broad area of low pressure is likely to form near the coast of 
southern Mexico by early this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive and a tropical depression could form by
the middle part of the week while it moves slowly westward near 
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. The latest 
Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through 5 days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Several altimeter passes indicate sea heights of 7-9 ft across 
the forecast waters, with the exception in the lee of the 
Galapagos Islands. Cross equatorial south to southwest swell 
continues to propagate across the region. Mainly gentle to 
moderate SW to W winds are observed.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will continue across most of the forecast area this Sunday into 
the middle of the week. Large swells from the Southern Hemisphere
will continue to cross the equator, with seas of 6-8 ft between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. A very
moist and unstable atmospheric environment will maintain active 
weather across most of the offshore waters through the period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is analyzed over the west-central waters and 
runs from 27N137W to 20N139W. No convection is noted with this 
trough. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the discussion 
area N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W. Recent scatterometer
data show gentle to moderate winds over the waters N of 10N and 
W of 110W where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds are observed S of 10N with seas of 8-9. Latest 
altimeter data passes indicate seas of 8-10 ft just south of the
equator between 92W and 120W due to long-period southerly swell.
The leading edge of 8 ft seas appears to have propagated into 
the coastal waters S of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, little change in the marine conditions are
expected over the next 72 hours as the remnant low of Kay remains
over the NE waters W of Baja California Norte, and a high pressure
center persists over the NW corner of the forecast region near 
30N140W. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and associated seas 
will continue south of the monsoon trough. Additional pulses of 
long period SW swell will reach the equator today, and propagate 
northward over the next few days.

$$
GR