406 AXPZ20 KNHC 110309 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Sep 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH.. The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 16N104W to 12N120W to 15N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 08N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 16N between 86W and 103W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and from 10N to 15N W of 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kay is analyzed near 31N120W with a pressure of 1004 mb. It is drifting westward. Its associated cyclonic circulation is broad as observed in satellite imagery. Fresh to strong winds are still noted within about 90 nm NE quadrant of the low center with seas of 8-10 ft. Over the forecast waters, an area of moderate to fresh W to NW winds, with seas of 8-9 ft in NW to N swell is seen N of 28N between 120W and 124W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters, with an area of moderate to fresh northwest winds and seas to 8 ft across the offshore waters of Jalisco and Colima. For the forecast, the remnant low of Kay will continue to drift in a general westward motion tonight, then southwestward through Sun morning, then southeastward south of 30N through Mon as it weakens. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will be associated with the cyclonic circulation. High pressure will build again across the region by the middle of the week. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form near the coast of southern Mexico by early this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this system by the middle part of the week while it moves slowly westward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas remain north of the monsoon trough. Cross equatorial south to southwest swell continues to propagate across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will continue across most of the forecast area this Sunday into the middle of the week. Seas of 8 ft due to southerly swell will subside today. A very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will maintain active weather across most of the offshore waters through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The earlier analyzed ill-defined 1010 mb low near 23N138W is now a trough that extends from near 24N139W to 16N138W. No convection is noted with this trough. A weak ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted N of 22N W of 120W, while light to gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh south winds are present south of the monsoon trough, where seas are 7-9 ft due to south to southwest long- period swell. Latest altimeter data passes indicate seas of 9-11 ft just south of the equator between 93W-120W due to long-period southerly swell. The leading edge of 8 ft seas appears to have propagated into the coastal waters S of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest winds and associated seas will continue south of the monsoon trough. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will continue to spread northward and will be reinforced by another pulse Sun and decay early next week. $$ GR