000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102129 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Sep 10 2022 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia west- northwest through southern Nicaragua and El Salvador to 13N88W to 12N96W to 10N104W to 12N116W to 14N130W to low pressure near 15N140W 1009 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough axis between 87W-90W, also within 60 nm north of the trough axis between 90W-96W, and within 30 nm south of the trough axis between 94W-96W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough axis between 136W-139W, within 60 NM north of the trough axis between 101W-107W, and within 120 nm south of the trough axis between 125W-132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kay is analyzed near 31N120W with a pressure of 1000 mb. An overnight ASCAT data pass nicely captured the broad cyclonic circulation associated with the low. The data showed fresh to strong winds within 180 nm of the center in the NE semicircle, and moderate to fresh winds within 240 nm of the center in the SW semicircle. Buoy observations offshore extreme southern California west of the border between California and the Baja California peninsula are reporting fresh to strong southeast to south winds and seas of about 8-9 ft. Areas of rain along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 29N and east of 122W. Swells earlier generated by Kay are still affecting the coast of southern California and the northern Baja California peninsula. These swells should subside this afternoon. Gradual weakening of the remnant low is expected during the next couple of days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters, with an area of moderate to fresh northwest winds and seas to 8 ft across the offshore waters of Jalisco and Colima. Low pressure of 1007 mb is analyzed along the coast of Manzanillo, with a trough extending from it to near 16N100W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring with this feature. This activity has decreased some during the past few hours. For the forecast, the remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kay will persist across most of the offshore waters of Baja California through Mon, producing gentle to moderate winds. The ridge will build again across the region by the middle of next week. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form near the coast of southern Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this system by the middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas remain north of the monsoon trough. Cross equatorial south to southwest swell continues to propagate across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will continue across most of the forecast area through the rest of the weekend and into the middle of next week. Seas of 8 ft due to southerly swell will subside on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Satellite imagery reveals a rather ill-defined 1010 mb low near 23N138W. It is moving westward, and is devoid of any deep convection. Gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft in mixed swell are within the vicinity of this weak low. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh south winds are present south of the monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-7 ft and 7-9 ft south of the trough due to a south to southwest swell. An overnight altimeter data pass revealed seas of 8-12 ft just south of the equator between 93W-120W due to long-period southerly swell. The leading edge of 8 ft seas is about 120 nm southwest of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest winds and associated seas will continue south of the monsoon trough. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will continue to spread northward today, be reinforced by another pulse Sun and decay early next week. $$ Aguirre