000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Sep 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 13N90W to 10N103W to 09N102W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 15N between 85W and 95W, and from 10N to 13N between 99W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 100W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... At 10/0300 UTC, the last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on Kay. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds associated with the cyclonic circulation, with the strongest winds of 30 kt within about 120 nm in the NE quadrant of the low center. Swells generated by Kay are still affecting the coast of southern California and the northern Baja California peninsula. These swells should subside today. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Fresh to strong southerly winds are still noted per satellite derived wind data over the forecast waters N of 28N between 116W and 119W with seas of 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters, with an area of moderate to fresh northwest winds and seas to 8 ft across the offshore waters of Jalisco and Colima. Some convective activity is also noted across the offshore waters from Guerrero to Michoacan. Frequent lightning is possible with this activity. For the forecast, a well defined cyclonic circulation associated with the remnant low of Kay will persist across most of the offshore waters of Baja California through Mon, producing gentle to moderate winds. The ridge will build again across the region by the middle of next week. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form near the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this system next week while it moves slowly westward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas remain north of the monsoon trough. Cross equatorial south to southwest swell continues to propagate across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will continue across most of the forecast area through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Seas are expected to build to 8-9 ft today due to pulses of southerly swell. This swell event will subside on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Satellite imagery reveals a rather ill-defined 1010 mb low near 23N138W. It is moving westward, and is devoid of any deep convection. Gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft in mixed swell are within the vicinity of this weak low. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh south winds are present south of the monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-7 ft and 7-9 ft south of the trough due to a south to southwest swell. Latest altimeter data shows seas of 8-12 ft just south of the equator between 93W-120W. The leading edge of 8 ft seas is just southwest of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest winds and associated seas will continue south of the monsoon trough. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will continue to spread northward today, and will subside on Sun. $$ GR