000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100329 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Sep 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 10/0300 UTC, the last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on Kay. At this time, Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay is centered near 31.3N 118.9W at 10/0300 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Kay has lost all of its deep convection. The system consists of a large swirl of low and mid-level clouds. Peak seas are currently at 14 ft in the NE quadrant. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest. A turn to the southwest and then the south is expected this weekend and early next week. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Kay are still affecting the coast of southern California and the northern Baja California peninsula. These swells should subside on Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 10N103W to 14N120W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07n to 13n between 84W and 90W, and from 07N to 12N between 97W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N W of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Kay now located N of the forecast area. fresh to strong southerly winds are still noted N of 28N between 116W and 118W, and in the northern Gulf of California N of 30N W of 114W. Outside of Kay, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters, with an area of fresh northwest winds and seas to 8 ft across the offshore waters from northern Guerrero to Jalisco near Cabo Corrientes. These marine conditions are enhanced by some thunderstorm activity over the same area. Frequent lightning is possible with this activity. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with Kay as a post- tropical cyclone will continue to gradually diminish across the offshore waters of northern Baja California through early Sat afternoon and in the northern Gulf of California late tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas remain north of the monsoon trough. Cross equatorial south to southwest swell continues to propagate across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will continue across most of the forecast area through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Seas are expected to build to 9 ft on Sat due to pulses of southerly swell. The swell will subside on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Satellite imagery reveals a rather ill-defined 1010 mb low near 24N138W. It is moving westward, and is devoid of any deep convection. Gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft in mixed northeast to east-southeast swell are within the vicinity of this weak low, and also north of about 20N and west of 130W. Elsewhere, gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh south winds are present south of the monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and 7-9 ft south of the trough due to a south to southwest swell. Latest altimeter data shows seas of 8-11 ft just south of the equator between 93W-120W. The leading edge of 8 ft seas is just southwest of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh southwest winds and associated seas will continue south of the monsoon trough. Farther south, the cross- equatorial swell will continue to spread northward through Sat producing seas of 8-11 ft through tonight, and slightly less seas during the weekend. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ GR