000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092135 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Sep 09 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kay is centered near 31.0N 118.0W at 09/2100 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Kay has lost all of its deep convection. The system consists of a large swell swirl of mostly overcast low and mid-level clouds. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Isolated weak showers and thunderstorms are within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. The southern extend of the 12 ft radii reaches south to north of about 28.5N and east of 119W. Peak seas are currently at 16 ft. Kay is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest, with a decrease in forward speed expected later today. A turn to the west is expected by late Sat. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then begin to move further offshore tonight and Sat. Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next day or two. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia west- northwestward through Central America and reaches the coast at 14N92W. It then continues southwestward to 12N98W to 09N104W and to 07N114W. It resumes southwest of Tropical Storm Kay near 19N122W to 14N137W and to beyond 15N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 210 nm south of the trough between 91W-95W, and within 180 nm south of the trough between 95W-103W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 09N between 82W-85W, and from 08N to 12N between 85W-89W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 125W-128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Kay. Weather conditions across Baja California and the Gulf of California are related to the tropical cyclone. Outside of Kay, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters, with an area of fresh northwest winds and seas to 8 ft across the offshore waters from northern Guerrero to Jalisco near Cabo Corrientes. These conditions are expected to change little through Sun as thunderstorm complexes that form during the nocturnal hours along and inland that part of the Mexican coast track generally westward-northwest offshore the coast enhancing the wind field there. Presently, a large complex of numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms is present from 15N to 18N between 100W-105W. It is moving westward. Very heavy and frequent lightning is possible with this activity. For the forecast, as Kay moves northwestward and then west- northwest later today, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the offshore waters of northern Baja California through early Sat afternoon and in the northern Gulf of California late tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas remain north of the monsoon trough. Cross equatorial south to southwest swell continues to propagate across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will continue across most of the forecast area through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Seas are expected to build to 9 ft on Sat due to pulses of southerly swell. The swell will subside on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Satellite imagery reveals a rather ill-defined 1010 mb low near 24N138W. It is moving westward, and is devoid of any deep convection. Gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft in mixed northeast to east- southeast swell are within the vicinity of this weak low, and also north of about 20N and west of 130W. Elsewhere, gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh south winds are present south of the monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and 7-9 ft south of the trough due to a south to southwest swell. Latest altimeter data shows seas of 8-11 ft just south of the equator between 93W-120W. The leading edge of 8 ft seas is just southwest of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh southwest winds and associated seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through Sat as Kay pulls farther away to from the northeast part of the area to north of 30N. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will continue to spread northward through Sat producing seas of 8-11 ft through tonight, and slightly less seas during the weekend. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ Aguirre