000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 09 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kay is centered near 30.3N 116.7W at 09/1500 UTC or about 50 nm west-northwest of Punta Baja, Mexico and about 140 nm south of San Diego, California moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Kay is becoming less organized. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted near its center, and to its southwest from 27N to 30N between 116W-118W. An area of scattered moderate convection is displaced to its northeast from 31N to 34W between 114W-118W. 12 ft seas extend to within 300 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. The radii is gradually decreasing in the other quadrants. Peak seas are currently at 17 ft. Kay is forecast to turn toward the west- northwest later today, with a decrease in forward speed expected later today. A turn to the west is expected by late Sat. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then begin to move further offshore by Sat. Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia west- northwestward to 12N86W to 16N96W to 10N103W to 06N110W. It resumes southwest of Tropical Storm Kay near 19N121W to 14N130W and to beyond 15N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 82W-85W, also from 09N to 12N between 85W-87W and from 09N to 12N between 90W-99W. Scattered moderate convection from 07N to 10N between 106W-110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Kay. Weather conditions across Baja California and the Gulf of California are related to the tropical cyclone. Outside of Kay, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters, with an area of fresh northwest winds and seas to 8 ft across the offshore waters from northern Guerrero to Jalisco near Cabo Corrientes. These conditions are expected to change little through Sun as thunderstorm complexes that form during the nocturnal hours along and inland that part of the Mexican coast track generally westward-northwest offshore the coast enhancing the wind field there. Presently, a large complex of numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 99W-104W. It is nearly stationary. Very heavy and frequent lightning is possible with this activity. For the forecast, as Kay moves northwestward and then west- northwest later today, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the offshore waters of northern Baja California, and in the northern Gulf of California late today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas remain north of the monsoon trough. Cross equatorial south to southwest swell continues to propagate across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail across most of the forecast area through the upcoming weekend. Seas are expected to build to 8 or 9 ft due to pulses of southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Satellite imagery reveals a rather ill-defined swirl of low-level clouds moving westward near 24N138W. Gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft in mixed northeast to east-southeast swell are within the vicinity of the low, and also north of about 20N and west of 130W. Elsewhere, gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh south winds are present south of the monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and 5-8 ft south of the trough due to a south to southwest swell. Overnight altimeter data indicated seas of 8-11 ft just south of the equator between 98W-120W. For the forecast, fresh southwest winds and associated seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through Sat as Kay pulls farther away to from the northeast part of the area to north of 30N. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will continue to spread northward through Sat generating seas of 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ Aguirre