000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090928 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Kay was downgraded to tropical storm status at 09/0000 UTC. Heavy rains and flooding ongoing over portions of the Baja California peninsula as Kay parallels the western coast. At 09/0900 UTC, Tropical Storm Kay is centered near 29.4N 116.0W moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the tropical cyclone continues to weaken. Numerous moderate convection is currently noted N of 29N between 113.5W and 116W. This convective activity is mainly affecting northern Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California. Recent scatterometer pass indicates SE to S storm force winds across the Gulf of California from 28N to 30.5N with seas of up to 19 ft based on an altimeter pass. Seas of 8-11 ft generated by Kay reach the Guadalupe Island. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then begin to move further offshore by Saturday. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday. Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 17N103W. It resumes southwest of T.S. Kay near 16N120W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 88W and 94W, and from 10N to 15N between 98W and 103W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are seen N of 15N between 98W and 102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Kay. Weather conditions across Baja California and the Gulf of California are related to the tropical cyclone. Tropical Storm conditions are expected N of Punta Eugenia and in the northern Gulf of California today. Outside of Kay, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters, with an area of fresh NW winds and seas to 8 ft across the offshore waters from northern Guerrero to Jalisco near Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, as Kay moves northward, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the offshore waters of northern Baja California, and in the northern Gulf of California late today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are noted S of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas remain north of the monsoon trough. Cross equatorial S to SW swell continues to propagate across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail across most of the forecast area through the upcoming weekend. Seas are expected to build to 8 or 9 ft due to pulses of southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Satellite imagery reveals a swirl of low clouds near 24N137W. Gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft in mixed NE and SE swell are associated with this system. Elsewhere, gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh south winds are present south of the monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and 5-8 ft south of the trough. Recent altimeter data indicate seas of 8-11 ft just S of the equator between 98W and 120W. For the forecast, fresh southwest winds and associated seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through Sat as Kay pulls farther away to from the northeast part of the area to north of 30N. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will continue to spread northward through Sat generating seas of 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ GR