000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090345 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Sep 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Kay was downgraded to tropical storm status at 09/0000 UTC. Heavy rains and flooding continuing over portions of the Baja California peninsula. At 09/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Kay is centered near 28.4N 115.0W moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the tropical cyclone continues to weaken. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 28N between 112W and 115W. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Saturday. A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Friday and continue into Saturday. A turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will pass near or west of the northwest coast of the Baja peninsula Friday and Friday night. Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 16N100W. It resumes southwest of T.S. Kay near 17N120W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 84W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Kay. Weather conditions across Baja California and the Gulf of California are related to the tropical cyclone. Tropical Storm conditions are forecast N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight, and N of Punta Eugenia tonight and Fri. Tropical Storm conditions are also expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight and Fri, and in the central part of the Gulf tonight. Outside of Kay, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters, with an area of fresh NW winds and seas to 8 ft across the offshore waters of part of Guerrero, Colima and Jalisco. For the forecast, as Kay moves northward, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the offshore waters of northern Baja California, and in the northern Gulf of California by late Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds seas are noted south of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas remain north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Fri. Seas are expected to build to near 8 ft by Fri night due to pulses of southerly swell, and change little into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Satellite imagery reveals a swirl of low clouds near 24N137W. Gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft in mixed NE and SE swell are associated with this system. Elsewhere, gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh south winds are present south of the monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and 5-8 ft in a south to southwest south of the trough. For the forecast, fresh southwest winds and associated seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through Sat as Kay pulls farther away to from the northeast part of the area to north of 30N. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will continue to spread northward through Sat generating seas of 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ GR