000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082142 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Sep 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kay is centered near 27.1N 114.3W, or 60 nm southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico and about 365 nm south-southeast of San Diego, California at 08/2100 UTC moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the tropical cyclone continues to weaken. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and also from 30N to 32N between 110W-117W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 27N to 32N between 108W-116W, including NW Mexico and Baja California. The radii of seas 12 ft or greater extends as far as 4200 nm in the SE quadrant, with peak seas to 25 ft. Seas are 10-16 ft elsewhere from about 20N to 28N and east of 119W. Kay is forecast to maintain its current motion through Fri. A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Fri and continue into Sat. A turn toward the west is expected by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will pass over portions of the Baja California peninsula near Punta Eugenia for the next several hours, then move over the Pacific near and offshore of the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, Fri and Fri night. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to weaken to a tropical storm in the next few hours. Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Costa Rica near 11N86W to 08N97W to 10N108W 12N105W. It resumes southwest of Kay near 17N120W to 14N130W and to beyond 13N140W. Aside from convection related to Hurricane Kay, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 78W-89W. Scattered moderate convection exists from 05N to 10N between 80W-85W, within 120 nm south of trough between 85W-89W and also from 07N to 11N between 101W-105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Kay. Outside of Kay, gentle winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, tropical storm force winds prevail across the central Gulf and in the southern part of the northern Gulf, while strong to near gale prevail in the northern part of the southern Gulf. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere in the northern Gulf waters. Seas range from 5-7 ft over offshore Pacific waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 10-17 ft in the central part, 8-12 ft in the northern part of the southern Gulf and 2-3 ft elsewhere in the northern section. For the forecast, expect for wind and seas associated to Kay to gradually shift to the northwest through Sat, while diminishing. Conditions in the Gulf of California will lift northwest of the gulf Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds seas are noted south of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas remain north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Fri. Seas are expected to build to near 8 ft by Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1012 mb low is near 25N137W. No convection is occurring with low as it is within a very dry and stable environment. Generally moderate northeast winds and seas to 7 ft are west of the low. Elsewhere, gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh south winds are present south of the monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and 5-8 ft in a south to southwest south of the trough. For the forecast, the seas north of 25N and west of the 1012 mb low will change little through late Fri night, then build slightly to 7 ft Sat as a mixed northeast to east begins to impact those waters. Fresh southwest winds and associated seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through Sat as Kay pulls farther away to from the northeast part of the area to north of 30N. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will continue to spread northward through Sat generating seas of 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ Aguirre