000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Sep 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kay is centered near 25.8N 113.8W, or 100 nm northwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico or 140 nm south-southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 08/1500 UTC moving NNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Satellite imagery shows the tropical cyclone is continues to lose organization. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere north of 24N and east of 115W to inland Baja California and Mexico. The radii of seas 12 ft or greater extends as far as 360 nm in the SE quadrant, with peak seas of 32 ft. Seas are 10-14 ft elsewhere from about 14N to 28N and east of 122W. Kay is forecast to maintain its current motion through Fri. A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Fri and continue into Sat. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected move over or near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight, and near the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula on Fri. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days. However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes over or near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula today. Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 08N95W to 13N105W. It resumes southwest of Kay near 18N119W to 15N130W and to beyond 13N140W. Aside from convection related to Hurricane Kay, scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 10N between 80-85W, and within 120 nm south of trough between 85W-89W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Kay. Outside of Kay, gentle winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, tropical storm force winds prevail across the west-central Gulf, while strong to near gale prevail south of 27N. Light and variable winds prevail across the northern Gulf waters north of 27N. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft over offshore Pacific waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 9-14 ft in the central part, 8-10 ft in the southern section and 2-3 ft in the northern section. For the forecast, expect marine conditions to continue to deteriorate for waters west of Baja California and in the Gulf of California as Hurricane Kay continues to move north-northwestward through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds seas are noted south of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas remain north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Fri. Seas are expected to build to near 8 ft by Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1011 mb low is near 25N136W. No convection is occurring with low as it is within a very dry and stable environment. Generally moderate northeast winds and seas to 7 ft are west of the low. Elsewhere, gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh south winds are present south of the monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and 5-8 ft in a south to southwest south of the trough. For the forecast, the seas north of 25N and west of the 1011 mb low will subside slightly today. Fresh southwest winds and associated seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through Sat as Kay pulls farther away to from the northeast part of the area to north of 30N. Farther south, the cross- equatorial swell will continue to spread northward through Sat generating seas of 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ Aguirre