000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080313
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Sep 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Kay is centered near 23.2N 113.0W at 08/0300 UTC
moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Seas of 12 ft or greater extend outward from the center up to 
360 nm NE quadrant, 510 nm SE quadrant, 360 nm SW quadrant, and 
300 nm NW quadrant, with peak seas of around 35 ft. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 16N to 25N between 
109W and 116W. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is 
expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California 
peninsula this evening and tonight, and be near or over the west-
central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and 
Friday. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of 
days. However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when 
it passes near the west-central coast of the Baja California 
peninsula. Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect 
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day 
or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the 
Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and
to southern California during the next few days. These swells 
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
11N86W to 13N104W. The monsoon trough resumes near 19N120W to 
beyond 12N140W. Aside from the activity related to Hurricane Kay,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 
83W and 94W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane 
Kay.

Outside of Kay, gentle winds are noted across the Mexico 
offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, moderate to locally
fresh SE winds are ongoing in the central and northern sections,
while fresh to strong S winds prevail in the southern part of 
the Gulf. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft over offshore Pacific waters.
In the Gulf of California, seas are 2 to 4 ft in the northern 
Gulf, 4 to 8 in the central Gulf, and 8 to 14 ft in the southern
Gulf.

For the forecast, expect marine conditions to continue to
deteriorate for waters west of Baja California and in the Gulf of
California as Hurricane Kay continues to move north-northwestward
through Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally fresh winds seas are noted S of the monsoon 
trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of the Galapagos 
Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas 
persist north of the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail
south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos 
Islands offshore waters through Fri. Seas are expected to 
build through the rest of the week in this area, reaching near 8
ft by Fri night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends along 135W and N of 23N. To the west of
the trough axis, moderate NE winds and seas to 7 ft prevail. 
Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon 
trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh S winds are evident 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas N of the monsoon trough are 4 
to 6 ft, with 5 to 8 ft seas to the S.

For the forecast, the seas north of 26N and W of 130W will 
gradually decay tonight. Fresh SW winds and associated seas will 
persist south of the monsoon trough into late week as Hurricane 
Kay continues moving NNW in the Mexican offshore waters over the 
next few days. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will
continue to spread north tonight. Elsewhere, little change is 
anticipated through the weekend.

$$
ERA