000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kay is centered near 22.0N 113.0W at 07/2100 UTC moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Kay remains a Category Two Hurricane. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend outward from the center up to 360 nm NE quadrant, 510 nm SE quadrant, 360 nm SW quadrant, and 300 nm NW quadrant, with peak seas of around 36 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 25N between 108W and 121W. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula this evening, and be near or over the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday. Some strengthening is forecast this evening. Weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a hurricane when it passes near the west- central coast of the Baja California peninsula. Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast and into the Gulf of California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 11N101W. The monsoon trough resumes near 16N118W to beyond 12N140W. Aside from the activity related to Hurricane Kay, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 118W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 04N to 13N between 86W and 101W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Kay.Outside of Kay, gentle winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh SE winds are ongoing in the central and northern sections, with strong SE winds in the southern part of the Gulf. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft over offshore Pacific waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 2 to 4 ft in the northern Gulf, 4 to 7 in the central Gulf, and 8 to 13 ft in the southern Gulf. For the forecast, expect marine conditions to continue to deteriorate for waters west of Baja California and in the Gulf of California as Hurricane Kay continues to move north- northwestward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds seas are noted S of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas persist north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters into Fri. Seas are also expected to continue building through the rest of the week in this area, reaching near 8 ft Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 30N132W to 25N133W. To the west of the trough axis, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas to 7 ft prevail. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh S winds are evident south of the monsoon trough. Seas N of the monsoon trough are 4 to 6 ft, with 5 to 8 ft seas to the S. For the forecast, the seas north of 27N and W of 130W will gradually decay tonight. Fresh SW winds and associated seas will persist south of the monsoon trough into late week as Hurricane Kay continues moving NNW in the Mexican offshore waters over the next few days. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will spread north tonight. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ KONARIK