000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kay is centered near 18.0N 110.0W at 06/1500 UTC moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Maximum seas at this time can reach 32 ft mainly across the northern semicircle near the center. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend outward from the center up to 360 nm in the E semicircle and up to 270 nm in the W semicircle. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 21N between 105W and 115W. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of Baja California Sur on Wed, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thu and Fri. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Kay could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula. Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Large swells are beginning to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and are expected to spread northward and into the Gulf of California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N82W to 11N99W. The monsoon trough resumes near 15N121W to 17N128W to beyond 11N140W. Aside from the activity related to Hurricane Kay, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 82W and from 07.5N to 13N between 93.5W and 103.5W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Kay. Winds of 25 kt or greater associated with Hurricane Kay currently prevail between 104W and 115W, from 14.5N to 22.5N. Seas 12 ft or greater currently prevail from 14N to 22N between 103.5W and 113.5W. Outside of Kay, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters, east of 103W, as well as in the northern and central Gulf of California, and off Baja California Norte. Seas range 4-6 ft with 1-3 ft in the central and northern Gulf of California. However, swells of 6 to 9 ft from Kay have now progressed into the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, expect marine conditions to continue to deteriorate for waters south and west of the southern tip of Baja California as Hurricane Kay continues to strengthen as it moves north-northwestward. Conditions in the Gulf of California will also deteriorate significantly, where winds to tropical storm force and seas to 12 ft are possible. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted S of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas persist elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon trough affecting the Gulf of Panama and waters W of Colombia. For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected to prevail through tonight across the area. By early Wed, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas are also expected to continue building through the rest of the week in this area, reaching near 8 ft by the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb low centered near 26N129W continues its weakening trend west of the Baja California offshore waters. To the NW of this low, the gradient between the low and high pressure centered NW of the area are leading to fresh NE winds and seas to 8 ft north of 27N between 130W-138W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh S to SW winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 08N to 13N between 115W and 130W. Seas to 7 ft are noted in this area. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the seas north of 27N and W of 125W will gradually decay Wed. Fresh SW winds and associated seas will persist south of the monsoon trough through mid week as Hurricane Kay continues moving NNW in the Mexican offshore waters over the next few days. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will return by tonight. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through late week. $$ Hagen