000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060306
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Sep 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Kay is centered near 16.0N 108.1W at 06/0300 UTC
moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.
Maximum seas at this time can reach 25 ft mainly across the
northern semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 08N to 21N between 104W and 123W. On the forecast 
track, the center of Kay is expected to remain southwest and west
of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, then move to the west of
the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and 
Thursday. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of 
days, and Kay is expected to be a strong hurricane when it passes
near the Baja California peninsula during the middle of the 
week. Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast 
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are
likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California 
peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread northward and 
into the Gulf of California through midweek. These swells will 
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to 12N97W. The monsoon trough resumes near 16N116W to 
beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N 
to 12N between 88W and 94W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane 
Kay.

Outside of Hurricane Kay, gentle locally moderate winds are 
noted across the Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 4-6 ft with 
1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, expect marine conditions to continue to
deteriorate for waters south and west of the southern tip of 
Baja California as Hurricane Kay continues to strengthen as it 
moves northward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are noted S 
of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of 
the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to 
moderate seas persist elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough 
affecting the offshore waters of El Salvador, Nicaragua, and
Costa Rica.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected to prevail
through Tue night across the area. By Wed, moderate to fresh
southerly winds will develop south of the monsoon trough across
the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas are also
expected to continue building through the rest of the week in
this area, reaching near 8 ft Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low centered near 28N126W continues its weakening 
trend west of the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to 
fresh winds persist over the N semicircle of the low with seas to
8 ft. To the W, N of 22N, the gradient between the low and a 
1025 mb high centered NW of the area are leading to an broad area
of fresh NE winds and seas of up to 9 ft. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the 
monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh southerly 
winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 10N to 15N 
between 115W and 135W. Seas to 8 ft are noted in this area. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, the seas north of 22N and W of 125W gradually
decay Wed. Fresh SW winds and associated seas will persist south
of the monsoon trough through mid week as newly-upgraded
Hurricane Kay continues moving north in the Mexican offshore 
waters over the next few days. Farther south, the cross-
equatorial swell will return by Tue night. Elsewhere, little 
change is anticipated through late week.

$$
ERA