000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052125
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Sep 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly Upgraded Hurricane Kay is centered near 15.6N 107.3W at 
05/2100 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with 
gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 10N to 22N between 100W and 115W. Seas are peaking near 26 
ft in the NE quadrant. On the forecast track, the center of
Hurricane Kay will remain well W of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula, but due to the expansive wind field, 
tropical storm conditions as possible there by early Wed. Kay 
will likely be near the the west-central portion of the peninsula
Thu and Fri. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kay may
become a Category 2 Hurricane Tuesday. By late Wed, cooler water
temperatures and a drier airmass should preclude strengthening, 
and steady weakening should commence for the latter portions of 
the week. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N82W to 13N98W. The monsoon trough resumes near 16N125W to 
beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N 
to 14N between 85W and 95W and from 11N to 15N between 125W and 
129W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on newly-
upgraded Hurricane Kay.

Outside of Hurricane Kay, gentle locally moderate winds are 
noted across the Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 4-6 ft with 
1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, expect marine conditions to continue to
deteriorate for waters south and west of the southern tip of 
Baja California as Hurricane Kay continues to strengthen as it 
moves northward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are noted S 
of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of 
the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to 
moderate seas persist elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough 
affecting the offshore waters of El Salvador, Nicaragua, and
Costa Rica.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected to prevail
through Tue night across the area. By Wed, moderate to fresh
southerly winds will develop south of the monsoon trough across
the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas are also
expected to continue building through the rest of the week in
this area, reaching near 8 ft Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low centered near 27N124W continues its weakening 
trend west of the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to 
fresh winds persist over the N semicircle of the low with seas 
to 8 ft. To the W, N of 22N, the gradient between the low and a 
1025 mb high centered NW of the area are leading to an broad area
of fresh NE winds and seas of up to 9 ft. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the 
monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh southerly 
winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 10N to 15N 
between 115W and 135W. Seas to 8 ft are noted in this area. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, the seas north of 22N and W of 125W gradually
decay Wed. Fresh SW winds and associated seas will persist south
of the monsoon trough through mid week as newly-upgraded
Hurricane Kay continues moving north in the Mexican offshore 
waters over the next few days. Farther south, the cross-
equatorial swell will return by Tue night. Elsewhere, little 
change is anticipated through late week.

$$
KONARIK