000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051528 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Sep 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kay is centered near 15.8N 106.4W at 05/1500 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 22N between 99W and 114W. Seas are peaking near 22 ft in the NE quadrant. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will remain well W of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, but due to the expansive wind field, tropical storm conditions as possible there by early Wed. Kay will likely be near the the west-central portion of the peninsula Thu and Fri. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Tuesday. By Wed, cooler water temperatures and a drier airmass should preclude strengthening, and steady weakening should commence for the latter portions of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 13N99W. The monsoon trough resumes near 16N120W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 85W and 97W and from 11N to 15N between 120W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Kay. Outside of Tropical Storm Kay, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 4-7 ft with 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, expect marine conditions to continue to deteriorate for waters south and west of the southern tip of Baja California as Tropical Storm Kay continues to strengthen as it moves northward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted S of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas persist elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough affecting the offshore waters of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected to prevail through Tue night across the area. By Wed, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters. Seas are also expected to continue building through the rest of the week in this area, reaching near 8 ft by the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low centered near 27N124W continues its weakening trend west of the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to fresh winds persist over the NE semicircle of the low with seas to 8 ft. To the W, N of 22N, the gradient between the low and a 1025 mb high centered NW of the area are leading to an broad area of fresh NE winds and seas of up to 9 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 10N to 15N between 115W and 135W. Seas to 9 ft are noted in this area. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the seas north of 22N and W of 125W gradually decay by mid- week. Fresh SW winds and associated seas will persist south of the monsoon trough through mid week as Tropical Storm Kay continues moving north in the Mexican offshore waters over the next few days. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will return Tue. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated into late week. $$ KONARIK