000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050942 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Sep 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kay is centered near 15.7N 105.3W at 05/0900 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 22N between 96W and 113W. Seas are peaking near 17 ft in the NE quadrant. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass south and southwest of southwestern Mexico today and tonight, then move toward the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or early Tuesday. Continued strengthening is forecast through midweek. Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next several days, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 14N99W. The monsoon trough resumes near 15N111W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 84W and 99W, and within 60 nm on either side of the boundary between 116W-127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Kay. A 1007 mb low centered near 28N124W continues its weakening trend west of the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to fresh winds persist over the N semicircle of the low with seas to 8 ft. Outside of Tropical Storm Kay, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 4-7 ft with 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, expect marine conditions to continue deteriorating across the southern Mexico offshore waters over the next few days as Tropical Storm Kay continues to strengthen as it moves northward toward Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds and moderate seas are noted S of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas persist elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough affecting the offshore waters of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected to prevail through Tue night across the area. By Wed, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters. Seas are also expected to continue building through the rest of the week in this area. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The latest altimeter pass depicts seas to 9 ft N of 22N and W of 125W. This area is between a 1007 mb low centered near 28N124W and 1025 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 10N to 15N between 115W and 135W. Seas to 9 ft are noted in this area. Farther south, the cross- equatorial SW swell near 8 ft has dropped south of the region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the seas north of 22N and W of 125W will drift E and dissipate by mid-week. Fresh SW winds and associated seas will persist south of the monsoon trough through mid week as Tropical Storm Kay continues moving north over the next few days. Farther south, the cross-equatorial swell will return by Tue. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through mid-week. $$ ERA