000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kay is centered near 15.6N 103.8W at 05/0300 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 21N between 99W and 114W. Seas are peaking near 15 ft in the NE quadrant. The center of Kay is expected to remain south of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, then move toward the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday. Strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so and continue strengthening through midweek. Seas are expected to peak near 40 ft over the next few days as Kay continues to move north along the Mexico coast. Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next several days, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica/Panama near 08N82W to 11N98W. The monsoon trough resumes near 17N109W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 81W and 99W and within 60 nm on either side of the boundary between 118W-139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Kay. The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier continues its weakening trend west of the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to fresh winds persist over the NW quadrant of the low with seas 8-10 ft. Outside of Tropical Storm Kay, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 4-7 ft with 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier will continue to improve tonight off of Baja California as the remnants of Javier drift farther west. Meanwhile, expect marine conditions to continue deteriorating across the southern Mexico offshore waters over the next few days as Tropical Storm Kay continues to strengthen as it moves northward toward Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The latest ASCAT pass depicts moderate winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and the Nicaragua offshore waters. Moderate winds and moderate seas are also noted S of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas persist elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Widespread strong thunderstorms continue across the Gulf of Panama westward to the Panama/Costa Rica offshore waters. For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected to prevail through Tue night across the area. By Wed, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters. Seas are also expected to continue building through the rest of the week in this area. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong winds N of 25N between 125W and 135W with seas 8-9 ft. This area winds and seas is between Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier to the southeast and 1025 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area. Post- Tropical Cyclone Javier is located near 28N122W, producing moderate to fresh winds over the northern semicircle of the low, with 8-10 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 10N to 15N between 115W and 130W. Seas to 8 ft are noted in this area. Farther south, the cross-equatorial SW swell near 8 ft has dropped south of the region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the winds and seas north of 25N between 125W and 135W will gradually diminish through Mon as the remnant low of Javier weakens further and eventually dissipates. The fresh to strong SW winds and associated seas will persist south of the monsoon trough through mid week as Tropical Storm Kay continues moving north over the next few days. Farther south, the cross- equatorial swell will return by Tue. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through mid-week. $$ ERA