000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042225 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kay is centered near 14.8N 102.5W at 04/2100 UTC and moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted from 09N to 20N between 95W and 112W. Seas are peaking near 15 ft in the NE quadrant. Kay is expected to have a west to west-northwest motion during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. Kay is expected to remain south of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Seas are expected to peak over 30 ft over the next few days as Kay continues to move north along the Mexico coast. Swells generated by Kay are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica/Panama near 08N93W to 10N92W to 13N101W. The monsoon trough resumes near 18N127W to 12N133W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 77W and 95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 115W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Kay. The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier is finally west of the Baja California offshore waters. There is still some fresh to strong winds noted northeast of the low, in the far northwestern offshore waters with seas 8-11 ft. Outside of Tropical Storm Kay, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 4-7 ft with 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier are expected to improve tonight off of Baja California as Javier continues to drift farther west. Meanwhile, expect marine conditions to continue deteriorating across the southern Mexico offshore waters over the next few days as Tropical Storm Kay continues to strengthen as it moves northward toward Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The latest ASCAT pass depicts moderate winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and the Nicaragua offshore waters. Moderate winds and moderate seas are also noted S of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas persist elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Widespread strong thunderstorms continue across the Gulf of Panama westward to the Panama/Costa Rica offshore waters. For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected to prevail through Tue night across the area. By Wed, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters. Seas are also expected to continue building through the rest of the week in this area. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong winds N of 26N between 129W and 136W with seas 8-9 ft. This area winds and seas is between Post- Tropical Cyclone Javier to the southeast and 1025 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area. Post- Tropical Cyclone Javier is located near 28N121W, producing fresh to strong winds north of the low with 8-11 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 10N to 15N between 115W and 130W. Seas to 8 ft are noted in this area. Farther south, the cross- equatorial SW swell near 8 ft has dropped south of the region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the winds and seas north of 25N between 125W and 135W will gradually diminish through Mon as the remnant low of Javier weakens further and eventually diminishes. The fresh to locally strong SW winds and associated seas will persist south of the monsoon trough will persist through mid week as Tropical Storm Kay continues moving north over the next few days, with the swell. Farther south, the cross- equatorial swell will return by Tue. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through mid week. $$ AReinhart