000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kay is centered near 14.8N 102.5W at 04/2100 UTC and moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted from 09N to 20N between 95W and 112W. Seas are peaking near 15 ft in the NE quadrant. Kay is expected to have a west to west-northwest motion during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. Kay is expected to remain south of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Seas are expected to peak over 30 ft over the next few days as Kay continues to move north along the Mexico coast. Swells generated by Kay are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica/Panama near 08N93W to 10N92W to 13N101W. The monsoon trough resumes near 18N127W to 12N133W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 77W and 95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 115W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Twelve-E. Post-tropical cyclone Javier is located on the far western edge of the Baja California offshore waters near 27N120W. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of the low with seas 8-10 ft. Outside of Javier at TD Twelve-E, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist across the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are generally 4-6 ft with 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, expect strong winds and rough seas associated with Post-Tropical Javier south of Guadalupe Island through this afternoon. Winds and seas are expected to improve later this afternoon off of Baja California as Javier continues to drift farther west beyond the offshore waters. Expect marine conditions to continue deteriorating across the southern Mexico offshore waters today and over the next few days as Tropical Depression Twelve-E continues to strengthen as it moves northward toward Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo and the Nicaragua offshore waters. Moderate winds and moderate seas are noted S of the monsoon trough off Ecuador/southern Colombia and north of the Galapagos islands. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas persist north of the monsoon trough. Widespread strong thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Panama southward off the southern Colombia coast. These thunderstorms are also impacting portions of Costa Rica. For the forecast, no major changes are expected through the early part of the week. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh S to SW winds with building seas south of the monsoon trough, reaching near 8 ft between the Galapagos and mainland Ecuador by Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh to strong winds are likely occurring N of 24N between 125W and 137W with seas 8-9 ft. This area winds and seas is between Post- Tropical Cyclone Javier to the southeast and 1023 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 10N to 15N between 115W and 130W. An overnight altimeter pass showed 8 ft seas in this area. Farther south, cross- equatorial SW swell near 8 ft is reaching as far north as 02S. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the winds and seas north of 25N between 125W and 135W will gradually diminish through Mon as the remnant low of Javier weakens further and eventually diminishes. The fresh to locally strong SW winds and associated seas will persist south of the monsoon trough west of 105W to 130W will persist through mid week as the low off Oaxaca develops. Farther south, the cross- equatorial swell will subside later today, but will return again by Tue. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through mid week. $$ AKR