000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Sep 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Twelve-E is centered near 14.0N 101.4W at 04/1500 UTC moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted from 10N to 20N between 98W and 109W. Seas are peaking at 13 ft within 120 nm in the NE quadrant. The depression is expected to move west to west- northwest during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Seas are also expected to reach near 25 ft. Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica/Panama near 08N83W to 10N90W to Tropical Depression Twelve-E near 14N101W. The monsoon trough resumes near 16N128W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 78W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 119W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on the gale warning off southern Mexico and Post-Tropical Storm Javier. A scatterometer satellite pass from 04 UTC showed generally light to gentle breezes across the Gulf of California and off Baja California Sur south of Cabo San Lazaro. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist across the Mexican offshore waters currently. For the forecast, expect strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with Post-Tropical Javier west of Punta Eugenia and south of Guadalupe Island through this afternoon. As winds and seas diminish off Baja California through late today, marine conditions will deteriorate farther south associated with the developing low off Guerrero. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas persist north of the monsoon trough, with moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas in SW swell south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, no major changes are expected through the early part of the week. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh S to SW winds with building seas south of the monsoon trough, reaching near 8 ft between the Galapagos and mainland Ecuador by Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Post-Tropical Javier. Recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes depicted fresh NW winds and 8 to 9 ft seas north of 25N between 125W and 135W. This area of fresh winds is between Javier to the southeast and 1023 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 10N to 15N between 105W and 130W. A recent altimeter pass showed 8 ft seas in this area. Farther south, cross-equatorial SW swell near 8 ft is reaching as far north as 02S. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the winds and seas north of 25N between 125W and 135W will gradually diminish through Mon as the remnant low of Javier weakens further and eventually diminishes. The fresh to strong SW winds and associated seas will persist south of the monsoon trough west of 105W to 130W will persist through mid week as the low off Oaxaca develops. Farther south, the cross- equatorial swell will subside later today, but will return again by Tue. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through mid week. $$ AKR