000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040918 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning... A 1006 mb low pressure is centered just off the coast of western Oaxaca near 14N100W. A large area of showers and thunderstorms has been developing for the past several hours west of the low level center, resulting from the convergence of NW flow along the coast of Colima and Michoacan against SE winds north of the low off Guerrero. A recent ship observation and partial scatterometer satellite pass showed strong SE winds north of the low. A concurrent altimeter pass indicated seas to at least 12 ft as well off eastern Guerrero. This is plausible given the lengthy fetch and duration of the winds across this region. The low may become more organized and develop into a tropical depression later today or tonight. Regardless of development, the system is forecast to move generally west- northwestward or northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week, bringing heavy rain to portions of that region. For marine interests, expect strong gales and rough to very rough seas in the offshore waters of Guerrero and Michoacan late today through Mon, and off Colima and Jalisco Mon into Tue, before impacting Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California by mid week. Interests in those locations and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for additional information. Farther north, Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier is centered near 27.2N 118.5W at 04/0900 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Javier has moved over cooler waters and all convection around the storm has ended. Although Javier is weakening and is now post-tropical, it will take a little longer for associated winds and seas to diminish. Rough seas persist across the offshore waters off northern Baja California Sur and southern Baja California Norte. Winds and seas will diminish through late today off Baja California as the remnant low of Javier continues to weaken and shift farther west. For more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to the 1006 mb low pressure near 14N100W to 17N105W. The monsoon trough resumes near 16N120W to 11N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N to 18N between 100W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on the gale warning off southern Mexico and Post-Tropical Storm Javier. A scatterometer satellite pass from 04 UTC showed generally light to gentle breezes across the Gulf of California and off Baja California Sur south of Cabo San Lazaro. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist across the Mexican offshore waters currently. For the forecast, expect strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with Post-Tropical Javier west of Punta Eugenia and south of Guadalupe Island through this afternoon. As winds and seas diminish off Baja California through late today, marine conditions will deteriorate farther south associated with the developing low off Guerrero. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas persist north of the monsoon trough, with moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas in SW swell south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, no major changes are expected through the early part of the week. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh S to SW winds with building seas south of the monsoon trough, reaching near 8 ft between the Galapagos and mainland Ecuador by Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Post-Tropical Javier. Recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes depicted fresh NW winds and 8 to 9 ft seas north of 25N between 125W and 135W. This area of fresh winds is between Javier to the southeast and 1023 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 10N to 15N between 105W and 130W. A recent altimeter pass showed 8 ft seas in this area. Farther south, cross-equatorial SW swell near 8 ft is reaching as far north as 02S. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the winds and seas north of 25N between 125W and 135W will gradually diminish through Mon as the remnant low of Javier weakens further and eventually diminishes. The fresh to strong SW winds and associated seas will persist south of the monsoon trough west of 105W to 130W will persist through mid week as the low off Oaxaca develops. Farther south, the cross- equatorial swell will subside later today, but will return again by Tue. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through mid week. $$ Christensen