170 AXPZ20 KNHC 040314 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Sep 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Javier is centered near 26.8N 117.1W at 04/0300 UTC moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Javier has moved over cooler waters and all convection around the storm has ended. Although Javier is weakening and becoming post-tropical, it will take a little longer for associated winds and seas to diminish. Rough to very rough seas persist across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Winds and seas will diminish through late Sun off Baja California as the remnant low of Javier continues to weaken and shift farther west. Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details ...Gale Warning... A 1006 mb low pressure is centered just off the coast of western Oaxaca near 13.5N99W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident from 12N to 17N between 98W and 105W. This convection is support by convergence of fresh to strong easterly flow funneling along the coast north of the low, and convergence of the southwest winds into the monsoon trough west of the low. Although recent satellite imagery indicates that the system does not have a well-defined circulation yet, additional development is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form tonight or on Sunday. The system is forecast to move generally west- northwestward or northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week, bringing heavy rain to portions of that region regardless of development. Interests in those locations and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Confidence is high enough that winds will reach gale force to sustain a gale warning for the Mexican offshore waters starting Sun. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for additional information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to the 1006 mb low pressure near 13.5N99W to 17N105W. The monsoon trough resumes near 16N115W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 90W and 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier and the Gale Warning. Winds and seas are diminishing over the Gulf of California, although a few showers and thunderstorms persist over the central Gulf. Aside from the tropical storm conditions still active off Baja California Sur, and the strong winds and rough seas off western Oaxaca, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist across the Mexican offshore waters currently. For the forecast, as winds and seas diminish off Baja California through late Sun, marine conditions will deteriorate farther south over the offshore waters of Guerrero and Michoacan related to the developing low pressure currently off western Oaxaca. Looking ahead, rough to very rough seas can be expected off Colima and Jalisco Mon into Tue, and then between Cabo Corrientes, Socorro Island and Los Cabos through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate gap winds are likely pulsing off the Gulf of Papagayo and the Nicaragua offshore waters. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate S to SW winds continue across offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, in addition to southern Colombia. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Strong thunderstorms persist across the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo and the Nicaragua offshore waters through Sun afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds will persist across the region into Sun, along with slight to moderate seas. Seas may build starting late Sun across the outer waters off Guatemala beyond 90 nm as low pressure deepens farther west off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, these seas will subside through Mon as the low moves farther west, but SW swell will maintain at least 5 to 7 ft combined seas across the region from early to mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier. Earlier scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes depicted fresh NW winds and 8 to 9 ft seas north of 25N between 125W and 135W. This area of fresh winds is between Javier to the southeast and 1023 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 10N to 15N between 105W and 130W. An afternoon altimeter pass showed 8 ft seas in this area. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. Southerly swell is meandering northward near 03S and W of 109W. For the forecast, the winds and seas north of 25N between 125W and 135W will gradually diminish through Mon as Javier weakens to a remnant low then eventually diminishes. The fresh to strong SW winds and associated seas will persist south of the monsoon trough west of 105W to 130W will persist through mid week as the low off Oaxaca develops. Farther south, seas to 8 ft can be expected Mon and Tue south of the equator between 100W and 120W due to cross-equatorial southerly swell moves into the area. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through mid week. $$ Christensen