030 AXPZ20 KNHC 032215 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Sep 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Javier is centered near 26.0N 116.1W at 03/2100 UTC moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm in the southern semicircle and in portions of the Gulf of California from 27N to 31N. Wave heights range from 12 to 14 ft off Baja California Sur, just south of Punta Eugenia. Seas in excess of 8 ft stretch as far south as 14N. Javier is expected to gradually turn toward the west-northwest and west and slow in forward motion for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Javier should begin to move away from the coast of Baja California Sur this evening. Javier is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days and become a post-tropical cyclone by early Sunday. Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details ...Gale Warning... A 1006 mb low pressure is centered just off the Oaxaca coast near 13N98W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident from 07N to 17N between 92W and 106W, due mostly to convergence of NW winds along the coast of Colima and Michoacan against SE winds along western Oaxaca and Guerrero. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days, and interests in those locations and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for additional information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to a 1006 mb low pres near 13N98W to 18N104W. The monsoon trough resumes near 20N122W to 13N130W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 78W and 92W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier and the Gale Warning. In addition to the tropical storm conditions off Baja California Sur, fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of California. Thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Javier are also noted in the north-central Gulf. Fresh NW winds are evident off Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Farther south, fresh to strong winds are noted off Chiapas and Oaxaca, occasionally gusting higher in the stronger thunderstorms with rough seas near the low pressure system. For the forecast, expect tropical storm conditions off Baja California related to Javier through Sun, with conditions improving across the Gulf of California tonight. Meanwhile, the focus turns to off southern Mexico where the next system may be developing. At a minimum, expect near-gale to gale force winds and rough seas over southern Mexican offshore waters from western Oaxaca to Jalisco tonight through at least Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are likely pulsing off the Gulf of Papagayo and the Nicaragua offshore waters. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate S to SW winds continue across offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, in addition to southern Colombia. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Strong thunderstorms persist across the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo and the Nicaragua offshore waters through Sun afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds will persist across the region into Sun, along with slight to moderate seas. Seas may build starting late Sun across the outer waters off Guatemala beyond 90 nm as low pressure deepens farther west off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, these seas will subside through Mon as the low moves farther west, but SW swell will maintain at least 5 to 7 ft combined seas across the region from early to mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier. The latest ASCAT this afternoon depicts fresh NW winds are noted north of 27N between 125W and 135W with seas 8 to 9 ft. This area of fresh winds is between Javier to the southeast and 1021 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough from 11N to 15N and west of 115W. An altimeter pass this morning showed seas ranging 8-10 ft in this area. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. Southerly swell is meandering northward near 03S and W of 109W. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with Tropical Storm Javier, the pressure gradient will strengthen over the NW and N-central waters. This will result in fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas near 9 ft through Mon. Southerly swell near 03.4S and W of 105W will subside by Sun morning. The area fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough will persist over the next few days and will continue the 8 ft seas in that area. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ AReinhart