000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Sep 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Javier is centered near 25.1N 114.8W at 03/1500 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active within 130 nm of the southern semicircle. Wave heights range 12 to 18 ft off Baja California Sur, mostly south of Punta Eugenia. Seas in excess of 8 ft are evident as far south as 12N. Javier is expected to continue moving northwest through today. A slow turn toward the west- northwest to west is expected to begin early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier should move generally parallel to but offshore of the coast of Baja California Sur through today, and then turn away from the coast on Sunday. Javier is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days and become a post-tropical cyclone by early Sunday. Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...Gale Warning... A 1006 mb low pressure is centered just off the southern Mexico coast. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident from 09N to 18N between 92W and 106W, due mostly to convergence of NW winds along the coast of Colima and Michoacan against SE winds along western Oaxaca and Guerrero. This activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days, and interests in those locations should monitor the progress of this system. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for additional information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to a 1006 mb low pres near 12N97W to 19N105W. The monsoon trough resumes near 19N119W to 11N133W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 81W and 89W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 123W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier and the Gale Warning. In addition to the tropical storm conditions off Baja California Sur, strong winds along with rough seas are noted over the central and southern Gulf of California. Rough seas persist across the region from the entrance to the Gulf of California to Tres Marias Islands to past Socorro Island to off Baja California Sur. Fresh NW winds are evident off Michoacan. Farther south, fresh to strong winds are noted off Chiapas and Oaxaca, occasionally gusting higher in the stronger thunderstorms with rough seas. For the forecast, expect tropical storm conditions off Baja California south of Punta Eugenia related to Javier through Sun, with strong SW winds spreading northward over the Gulf of California, although weakening. Meanwhile, the focus turns to off southern Mexico where the next system may be developing. At a minimum, expect near-gale to gale force winds and rough seas over Mexican offshore waters from western Oaxaca to Colima from Sat afternoon to early Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds continue across offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, in addition to southern Colombia. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Strong thunderstorms are noted across the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across the region into Sun, along with slight to moderate seas. Seas may build starting late Sun across the outer waters off Guatemala beyond 90 nm as low pressure deepens farther west off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, these seas will subside through Mon as the low moves farther west, but SW swell will maintain at least 5 to 7 ft combined seas across the region from early to mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds into Javier is evident from 11N to 18N between 105W and 125W, with 8 to 10 ft seas. Scattered showers are noted in this area as well but continue to diminish. Farther north, fresh NW winds are noted north of 25N between 122W and 135W, between Javier to the southeast and 1021 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area near 33N139W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to locally southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough west of 130W, but otherwise gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with Tropical Storm Javier, the pressure gradient will strengthens over the NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas to around 9 or 10 ft through Mon. Southerly swell is expected to move near 03.4S and W of 105W today. Seas will build to 8 ft and expected to subside by Sun morning. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ AReinhart