000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030409 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Sep 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Javier is centered near 23.1N 113.2W at 03/0300 UTC moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Shower and thunderstorm activity is weakening around Javier as it moves farther north off the coast of Baja California, and is starting to encounter cooler waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident within 120 nm of the center of Javier. Thunderstorms are also active on the periphery of Javier over the central Gulf of California, where a ship recently reported southerly winds to 30 kt. Wave heights of 12 to 15 ft are still noted off Baja California Sur, mainly south of Cabo San Lazaro and between Los Cabos and Socorro Island. A large area of SW flow into Javier on its southern flank is starting to weaken, but seas in excess of 8 ft are evident as far south as 11N to the southwest of the center. Javier is expected to weaken further into Sun as it continues to move northward into cooler waters, and will move west of Mexican offshore waters west of Punta Eugenia Sun afternoon. Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. A tropical wave has its axis along 97W from 05N northward into southern Mexico, moving west at about 10 kt. A 1007 mb low is on the wave near 12N. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is located mainly ahead of the tropical wave north of 11N and within 300 nm to the west of the axis. Continued gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression will likely form this weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week, and interests in those locations should monitor the progress of this system. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for additional information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough axis extends from the far southwestern Caribbean Sea to central Costa Rica, to 11N85W to 1007 mb low pressure near 12N96W. Another segment extends from SW of Javier near 17N117W to beyond the area at 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm N of the trough between 88W-92W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 14N between 91W and 93W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier. In addition to the tropical storm conditions off Baja California Sur, strong to near gale force winds along with rough seas are noted over the southern Gulf of California, extending into the central Gulf of California. Rough seas persist across the region from the entrance to the Gulf of California to Tres Marias Islands to past Socorro Island to off Baja California Sur. Fresh NW winds are evident off Michoacan. Farther south, moderate W winds are noted off Chiapas and Oaxaca, occasionally gusting higher in scattered showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, expect tropical storm conditions off Baja California south of Punta Eugenia related to Javier through Sun, with strong SW winds spreading northward over the Gulf of California, although weakening. Meanwhile, the focus turns to off southern Mexico where the next tropical storm may be developing. At a minimum, expect strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas over Mexican offshore waters from western Oaxaca to Colima from Sat afternoon to early Tue. A gale warning or tropical advisories may be necessary soon if this system continues to become organized. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate, to at times fresh, S to SW winds continue offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft in S to SW swell. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across the region into Sun, along with slight to moderate seas. Seas may build starting late Sun across the outer waters off Guatemala beyond 90 nm as low pressure deepens farther west off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, these seas will subside through Mon as the low moves farther west, but SW swell will maintain at least 5 to 7 ft combined seas across the region from early to mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds into Javier is evident from 11N to 18N between 105W and 125W, with 8 to 11 ft seas. Scattered showers are noted in this area as well but are diminishing. Farther north, fresh NW winds are noted north of 25N between 125W and 135W, between Javier to the southeast and 1021 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area near 33N140W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough west of 130W on a recent scatterometer satellite pass, but otherwise gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with Tropical Storm Javier, the pressure gradient will strengthens over the NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas to around 9 or 10 ft through Mon. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ Christensen