000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022245 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2245 UTC Fri Sep 02 2022 Updated Special features section for convection related to Tropical Storm Javier Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Updated Tropical Storm Javier is centered near 21.8N 112.8W, or about 180 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California at 02/2100 UTC moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Satellite imagery shows increasing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant and within 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center in the E semicircle, and also from 16N to 19N between 110W-113W and from 13N to 17N between 113W-120W. 24 hour rainfall totals for the period ending this morning reveal locally heavy rainfall, about 4 inches, recorded in some sections of Baja California. Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through Sat. Javier's forward speed is expected to increase through early Sat. A turn toward the west- northwest is forecast on Sat, followed by a turn toward the west on Sun. On the forecast track, the center of Javier should move parallel to but offshore the coast of Baja California Sur through Sat, and then move away from land on Sun. Some slight strengthening is possible through Sat before Javier begins to weaken on Sun as it moves over cooler waters. Javier is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 hours. Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. A tropical wave has its axis along 97W from 06N to 17N, moving west at about 10 kt. A 1008 mb low is on the wave near 13N. Satellite imagery shows disorganized numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 10N to 16N between 92W-97W, and from 09N to 15N between 97W-105W. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while it moves westward and then west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next couple of days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for additional information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from the far southwestern Caribbean Sea to central Costa Rica, to 11N86W to low pressure of 1008 mb near 13N86W. It resumes SW of Javier near 16N117W and continues to 12N130W and to beyond the area at 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm N of the trough between 88W-92W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the trough between 135W-138W, and within 60 nm S of the trough between 138W-139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier. Winds and seas are gradually increasing off Baja California Sur as Javier intensifies some and moves to the northwest. Similarly, southerly flow is increasing and seas are building between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes on the eastern side of Javier. Outside of Javier's tropical storm force wind radii, an ASCAT data pass showed a rather extensive area of fresh to strong SE to S winds reaching 360 nm to the NE including the southern Gulf of California and 420 nm to the SE of Javier. Seas of 8-11 ft are associated with these winds. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection being channeled northwestward with these winds is observed over the southern Gulf of California. Latest ASCAT data passes also revealed fresh gap N to NE winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is related to the low pressure that is along the Special Features tropical wave off southern Mexico. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and moderate seas remain over Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, Javier will continue to impact the waters off Baja California, with the center of Javier passing to the W of southern Baja tonight into Sat. Strong SE winds and rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California as well. Winds and seas will start to diminish Sat night into early Sun as Javier moves west of the area. Looking ahead, farther south, strong winds are possible off the coasts of western Oaxaca and Guerrero by late Sat, as low pressure deepens off southern and southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate, to at times fresh, S to SW winds continue offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft in S to SW swell. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds will continue offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador, pulsing at times to locally fresh through early next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds offshore Guatemala will diminish to light to gentle on Sun as a tropical wave and attendant low pressure move farther away from the forecast offshore waters. This system will likely gradually develop into a tropical depression this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Elsewhere moderate to fresh S to SW will exist S of the monsoon trough, and generally light variable winds to the N of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier located about 180 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near just NW of the area near new. A slighter tighter gradient to its E and SE is allowing for moderate to fresh N to N winds to exist between a line from 30N125W to 20N120W to 12N137W, and another line from 30N135W to 24N140W. Seas are 5-7 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Latest ASCAT data passes indicate a broad area of fresh southerly winds into the monsoon trough north of 05N between 108W-128W, with 8 to 11 ft seas in this area. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is noted elsewhere farther south. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with Tropical Storm Javier, the pressure gradient will strengthens over the NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas to around 9 or 10 ft through Mon. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the weekend. $$ Aguirre