000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 02 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Javier is centered near 20.7N 112.2W, or about 180 nm SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 02/1500 UTC moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Javier is gradually improving in organization as seen in satellite imagery. The imagery reveals numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 150 nm SE and NW quadrants of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and also from 15N to 19.5N between 110W-115W and from 13N to 16N between 115W-120W. Javier's forward speed is expected to increase through early Sat. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sat, followed by a turn toward the west on Sun. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Sat before Javier begins to weaken on Sun as it moves over cooler waters. Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is centered along 96W from 07N to 16N, moving west around 10. A 1008 mb low is on the wave near 13N. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 11N to 16N between 94W-98W, and from 09N to 15N between 98W-103W. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while it moves westward and then west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Costa Rica to 11N86W to low pressure near 13N86W 1008 mb. It resumes SW of Javier near 16N117W and continues to 12N128W to 11N135W to beyond the area at 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm N of the trough between 88W-90W, and between 135W-138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 78W-87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier. Winds and seas are starting to increase off Baja California Sur as Javier intensifies and moves to the northwest. Similarly, southerly flow is increasing and seas are building between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes on the eastern side of Javier. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 7-9 ft are seen in the entrance to the Gulf of California. SW swell of 7 to 8 ft is reaching the offshore waters of Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan. Farther south, a recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is related to the broad low pressure developing off southern Mexico. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and moderate seas are noted over Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, Javier will continue to impact the waters off Baja California, with the center of Javier reaching abeam of Cabo San Lazaro by late tonight or early Sat. Strong SE winds and rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California as well. Winds and seas will start to diminish late Sat into early Sun as Javier moves west of the area. Looking ahead, farther south, strong winds are possible off the coasts of western Oaxaca and Guerrero by late Sat, as low pressure deepens off southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S to SW winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft in S to SW swell. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, similar conditions will continue through at least early Sat. Winds may increase to moderate to locally fresh offshore Guatemala this afternoon into Sat as the tropical wave along 96W undergoes gradually development. A tropical depression is likely to form from this system this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Javier located about 180 nm SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Relatively weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered near just W of the area near 27N141W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are under the high north of 25N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Overnight scatterometer satellite passes indicated a broad area of fresh southerly winds into the monsoon trough north of 05N between 105W and 130W, with 7 to 10 ft seas in this area. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is noted elsewhere farther south. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with Tropical Storm Javier, the aforementioned high pressure will shift W-NW this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens over the NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas through Mon. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Aguirre