000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020955 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Javier is centered near 19.9N 111.7W at 02/0900 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the center. There has been a persistent surge of strong SW winds on the southeast quadrant of the low, allowing enough fetch and duration to develop seas of 8 to 13 ft within 150 to 270 nm on the southeast semicircle of the low. Eleven-E is expected to intensify to a minimal tropical storm later this morning as it continues to move to the northwest, but not intensify much more than that over the next 2 to 3 days before weakening again over cooler waters. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is centered along 96W north of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A broad circulation is noted along this wave, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms within from 11N to 16N between 96W and 101W. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while it moves westward and then west- northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 90W north of 05N to inland Guatemala. It is moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 12N between 88W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough extends from central Costa Rica to 11N86W and to Tropical Storm Javier, then to 16N115W to 11N130W to 10N140W. Aside from convection associated to Tropical Storm Javier and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 12N to 16N between 116W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on recently upgrade Tropical Storm Javier. Winds and seas are starting to increase off Baja California Sur as Javier intensifies and moves to the northwest. Similarly, southerly flow is increasing and seas are building between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes on the eastern side of Javier. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 7 to 9 ft are noted over the entrance to the Gulf of California. SW swell of 7 to 8 ft is reaching the offshore waters of Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan. Farther south, a recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is related to the broad low pressure developing off southern Mexico. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and moderate seas are noted over Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, Javier will continue to impact the waters off Baja California, with the center of Javier reaching abeam of Cabo San Lazaro by late tonight or early Sat. Strong SE winds and rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California as well. Winds and seas will start to diminish late Sat into early Sun as Javier moves west of the area. Looking ahead, farther south, strong winds are possible off the coasts of western Oaxaca and Guerrero by late Sat, as low pressure deepens off southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S to SW winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft in S to SW swell. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, similar conditions will continue through at least early Sat. Winds may increase to moderate to locally fresh offshore Guatemala this afternoon into Sat as the tropical wave along 96W undergoes gradually development. A tropical depression is likely to form from the wave late this week or early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on recently formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E that is about 240 nm S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 29N139W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are under the high north of 25N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. A pair of recent scatterometer satellite passes indicated a broad area of fresh southerly winds into the monsoon trough north of 05N between 105W and 130W, with 6 to 8 ft seas in this area. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is noted elsewhere farther south. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the low pressure area described in the Special Features, the high pressure will shift W-NW this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens over the NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas through Mon. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Christensen