000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020358 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Sep 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eleven-E is centered near 19.7N 111.3W at 02/0300 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The center of Eleven-E is just to the northwest of Socorro Island, which has reported light to moderate SW winds. Showers and thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm of the center. There has been a persistent surge of strong SW winds on the southeast quadrant of the low, allowing enough fetch and duration to develop seas of 8 to 13 ft within 150 to 270 nm on the southeast semicircle of the low. Eleven-E is expected to intensify to a minimal tropical storm later this morning as it continues to move to the northwest, but not intensify much more than that over the next 2 to 3 days before weakening again over cooler waters. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is centered along 96W north of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A broad circulation is noted along this wave, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms within 90 nm either side of the wave axis. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while it moves westward and then west- northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 89W north of 06N to inland El Salvador. It is moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the wave from 10N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough extends from central Costa Rica to 11N86W and to Tropical Depression Eleven-E, then to 16N115W to 11N130W to 10N140W. Aside from convection associated to Tropical Depression Eleven-E and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 12N to 15N between 115W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on recently formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E that is about 240 nm S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Elsewhere over the open waters, mainly gentle NW winds are west of Baja California Norte while light to gentle winds are west of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Outside of the influence of Tropical Depression Eleven-E, seas are 4-6 ft across the offshore waters of Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than the conditions associated to Tropical Depression Eleven-E as described in the Special Features, pulsing fresh northerly winds are again expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tonight. Gradual development of the tropical wave along 96W is expected, and is likely to form into a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S to SW winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft in S to SW swell. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over sections of Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, Costa Rica. Some of this activity extends to just offshore those coasts. Similar activity is over northwest Colombia. For the forecast, similar conditions will continue through at least early Sat. Winds may increase to moderate to locally fresh offshore Guatemala from Fri afternoon into Sat as the tropical wave along 96W undergoes gradually development. A tropical depression is likely to form from the wave late this week or early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on recently formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E that is about 240 nm S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. High pressure of 1018 mb is centered just NW of the areas near 32N129W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are under the high north of 25N and west of 133W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Strong to near gale winds were noted in an ASCAT pass to be south of Tropical Depression Eleven-E and \ the monsoon trough to near 09N and between 106W-120W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-12 ft range. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with seas generally in the 5-8 ft range. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the low pressure area described in the Special Features, high pressure will remain over the NW waters through Fri as a cold front presently near the far NW corner of the area stalls and begins to weaken. The high will shift W-NW this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens over the NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas through Mon. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Christensen/Aguirre